UFC Fight Night 211: John Castaneda vs. Daniel Santos Dern Picks and Predictions

Daniel Santos vs. John Castaneda

UFC: Saturday, October 1st at 7:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Daniel Santos +160 / John Castaneda -190 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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John Castaneda and Daniel Santos face off on Saturday at UFC Fight Night 211 in a catchweight bout at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

John “Sexy Mexi” Castaneda comes into this fight with a 19-5 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has gone 3-1. Castaneda’s last fight came against Miles Johns in February of 2022 and it was early in the third round that he locked in a triangle submission and that led to the victory. Castaneda is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.65 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 22 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also stopping 63 percent of his takedown attempts. Castaneda doesn’t go for a submission a ton, but he is successful when he tries them. 

On the other side of this fight is Daniel Santos who sits with an 8-2 record but he lost his fight inside the UFC. Santos faced off against Julio Arce in April of 2022 and he lost by unanimous decision. He was outstruck 127-49 in that fight. Santos is averaging 3.27 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 8.47 significant strikes per minute. Santos didn’t try for a takedown in that first fight, but he did stop 100 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts in that fight. In this fight, Santos can’t take as much damage as he did in the first fight. 

Santos was hit far too often in his first fight, and I don’t expect it’s going to be a whole lot different here. Castaneda is going to put the pressure on Santos here, and this is going to be a pretty easy victory for Castaneda. I’m not sure Castaneda is going to do enough to finish the fight by knockout, but he will win. Back Castaneda on the money line. 

Shane’s Pick John Castaneda ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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