UFC 279: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz Picks and Predictions

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz

UFC: Saturday, September 10th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Khamzat Chimaev -1150 / Nate Diaz +750 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz face off Saturday in a welterweight bout for the main event of UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. There has been some backstage fighting during fight week, and there should be some fireworks in the ring. 

Khamzat Chimaev comes into this fight with an 11-0 record and it sounds like a win here, he will be have a shot at the title. Chimaev’s last fight came against Gilbert Burns and although he was outstruck, he had two takedowns, and he was able to secure the unanimous decision. All other of his other four wins in the UFC have come by finish. Chimaev is averaging 7.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 3.23 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 66 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 100 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. He also will try to finish this fight by submission and is averaging 2.7 submission attempts every 15 minutes. There are still some who doubt him, but he has proven that he can dominate his opponents, but also win some wars. 

On the other side of this fight is Nate Diaz who is a fan favorite and at one time was one of the best fighters in the UFC. Diaz comes into this fight with a 21-13 record overall but he has lost two fights in a row. In his last fight against Leon Edwards in June of 2021 and he was dominated in that fight. He was taken down four times in that fight, and lost. Diaz is averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.73 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.10 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 30 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also stopping 41 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Diaz has a motor, but this is going to be a very tough test for him. 

If this fight was six or seven years ago, I think Diaz would be more competitive, but I think he is going to really struggle in this fight. Diaz has a motor, but I don’t think he has the talent to stay in this fight. Chimaev is such a technical fighter, and he is going to run through Diaz here. Back Chimaev to win this fight by KO/TKO. 

Shane’s Pick Khamzat Chimaev by TKO/KO

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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