UFC 278: Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili Picks and Predictions

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Jose Aldo

UFC: Saturday, August 20th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Merab Dvalishvili -140 Jose Aldo +120 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Jose Aldo and Merab Dvalishvili face off on Saturday in the main card for a bantamweight bout at UFC 278 at Vivant Arena in Salt Lake City. Aldo is ranked 3rd in the division while Dvalishvili is ranked 6th. 

Jose Aldo comes into this fight with a 31-7 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. In Aldo’s last fight against Rob Font, he was outstruck 149-86, but it was still enough to win by unanimous decision victory. It’s not a guarantee but there are thoughts that he might get another shot at the title if he wins this fight. Aldo is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.74 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.51 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 54 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 90 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also averaging 0.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

On the other side of this matchup is Merab Dvalishvili who sits with a 14-4 record overall and he has won seven fights in a row. Dvalishvili’s last fight came against Marlon Moraes in September of 2021 and he was dominant in the fight. Midway through the second round, he had finally worn down Moraes enough to secure the victory. He is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.28 significant strikes per minute. Dvalishvili is an elite wrestler and is averaging 7.30 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 45 percent of his takedown attempts and stops 78 percent of them. He is also averaging 0.3 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Aldo is elite at defending the takedown while Dvalishvili is an elite wrestler, and that is going to be the key to watch in this fight. I expect Aldo is going to do a good job of taking away Dvalishvili’s wrestling, and with the fight on the feet, he is going to pick apart his opponent. I expect Aldo to minimize the pressure off Dvalishvili and that will be the difference as Aldo gets the job done. Back Aldo on the money line. 

Shane’s Pick Jose Aldo +120

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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