UFC on ESPN 41: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz Picks and Predictions

Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz

UFC: Saturday, August 13th at 7:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Marlon Vera -240 / Dominick Cruz +200 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Marlon Vera and Dominick Cruz face off on Saturday in a bantamweight bout for the main event of UFC on ESPN 41 at Pechanga Arena in San Diego. Vera is currently ranked 5th in the division while Cruz is ranked 8th. 

Marlon Vera comes into this fight with a 19-7-1 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. Vera might only be a win or two away from a title shot. In Vera’s last start against Rob Font in April of 2022 he was actually struck 271-199, but he still came away with the unanimous decision victory. Two fights ago against Frankie Edgar, it was in the third round that he finished the fight with a kick. Vera is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.99 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.73 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 42 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 68 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Vera will go for the submissions and is averaging 1.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

On the other side of this fight is Dominick Cruz who sits with a 24-3 record overall and he has won two fights in a row. Cruz has dealt with a ton of nasty injuries during his career, but all he does is keep coming back from them and winning. In Cruz’s last fight against Pedro Munhoz in December of 2021, he outstruck his opponent 103-74 and that was enough to win by unanimous decision. Cruz is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56 significant strikes per minute. Cruz wants to get the fight to the ground and he is averaging 2.88 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 43 percent of his takedown attempts and he also stops 93 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Cruz is a great defensive fighter, and he needs to use that here. 

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Vera has more power in his hands, and he also has a reach advantage here, and he is going to use that to his advantage here. Cruz Is going to land some punches here, but Vera is going to his power to his advantage here, and as the fight goes on, he’s going to wear him down. I don’t think Vera gets the finish, but he is going to secure the victory. Back Vera to win by decision to cash. 

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Shane’s Pick Marlon Vera by decision

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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