UFC on ESPN 40: Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal Picks and Predictions

Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal

UFC: Saturday, August 6th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Vicente Luque -180 Geoff Neal +150 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal face off on Saturday in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 40 in a welterweight showdown at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Luque is currently ranked 6th in the league while Neal is ranked 13th. 

Vicente Luque comes into this game with a 21-8-1 record overall and he has won four of his last five fights. In Luque’s last fight though against Belal Muhammad in April of 2022 and he lost by unanimous decision. He was taken down five times in that fight and that led to the loss. Luque is averaging 5.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.18 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.54 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 50 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 61 percent of his takedown attempts. He is averaging 0.8 takedowns every 15 minutes. 

On the other side of this matchup is Geoff “Handz of Steal” Neal who sits with a 14-4 record overall but he has lost two of his last three fights. Neal’s last fight came against Santiago Ponzinibbio in December of 2021 and he won by split decision. He was actually outstruck 91-85, but still secured the win. Neal is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.91 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.50 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 50 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 85 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

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Luque is coming off a loss, but don’t let that scare you off, he is still the play here. Luque is a knockout artist and 13 of his 14 UFC victories have been by knockout. Luque has better cardio and grabbling than Neal, and he is going to have very little issues getting the job done here. Look for Luque to wear down Neal early, and this one isn’t going to take long to be finished. Back Luque by knockout. 

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Shane’s Pick Vicente Luque by knockout

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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