UFC on ESPN 40: Augusto Sakai vs. Sergey Spivak Picks and Predictions

Sergey Spivak vs. Augusto Sakai

UFC: Saturday, August 6th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Sergey Spivak -275 / Augusto Sakai +220 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Augusto Sakai and Sergey Spivak face off on Saturday on the main card of UFC on ESPN 40 in a heavyweight showdown at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Sakai is ranked 14th in the division while Spivac is unranked. 

Augusto Sakai comes into this fight with a 15-4-1 record overall but he has lost three fights in a row. Sakai’s last fight came against Tai Tuivasa and he looked really bad in that one. Sakai was outstruck 34-21 and early in the second round, he was knocked out. Sakai is averaging 5.04 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.09 significant strikes per minute. He mostly wants to keep the fight on the feet and is averaging 0.14 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts and he stops 68 percent of his takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Sergey Spivak who sits with a 14-3 record overall and he has won four of his last five fights. Spivak’s last fight came against Greg Hardy in March of 2022 and it was a little over two minutes into the fight that he was able to win the fight by knockout. Spivak is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.22 significant strikes per minute. Spivak wants to get the fight to the ground and he is averaging 3.29 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 60 percent of his takedown attempts. He also is successful on 70 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also averaging 0.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

There is no doubt that Spivak has been impressive coming into this fight, but he also really hasn’t fought a ton of real talent. Hardy is a big name, but not really for what he was able to do in the UFC. There is no doubt that Sakai has struggled heading into this fight, but he can use his leg kicks to try and keep the fight on the feet. With Sakai on the feet, he is more dangerous and that will be the difference as he’s able to get the job done. Back Sakai on the money line. 

Shane’s Pick Augusto Sakai ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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