UFC 277: Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves Picks and Predictions

Rafael Alves vs. Drew Dober

UFC: Saturday, July 30th at 8:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Rafael Alves +145 / Drew Dober -170 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Drew Dober and Rafael Alves face off on Saturday in the prelims in a lightweight bout at UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Drew Dober comes into this fight with a 24-11 record overall but he has lost two of his last three fights. Dober’s last fight came against Terrance McKinney in March of 2022 and he pulled off quite the win. Dober was being outstruck 36-17 but he was able to land the big punches that counted and ended the fight by knockout. Dober is averaging 4.40 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.23 significant strikes per minute. Dober is averaging 0.80 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 17 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 53 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Rafael “The Turn” Alves who sits with a 20-10 record overall and he is coming off a victory in his last fight. Alves faced off against Marc Diakiese and it was early in the first round that he locked in submission and secured the victory. Two fights ago against Damir Ismagulov it didn’t go as well as he was outstruck 56-30 and was defeated by a unanimous decision. Alves is averaging 2.10 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.56 significant strikes per minute. He wants to kee the fight on the feet and hasn’t had a takedown yet inside the UFC. He also has stopped 80 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts inside the UFC. He will try to lock in submissions and is averaging 1.8 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

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Alves has proven that his chin is weak way too many times, and he also has been put in bad positions a lot and ended up submitted. Dober is a fighter who is going to come forward early and really put pressure on his opponent. I expect that is going to wear down Alves, and this fight will be over quickly. Back Dober to win this fight by knockout. 

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Shane’s Pick Drew Dober by Knockout

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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