UFC 277: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich Picks and Predictions

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Derrick Lewis

UFC: Saturday, July 30th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Sergei Pavlovich -130 / Derrick Lewis +110 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich face off on Saturday in the main card in a heavyweight bout at UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Lewis is currently ranked 5th while Pavlovich is ranked 11th. 

Derrick Lewis comes into this fight with a 26-9 record overall but he has lost two of his last three fights. Lewis's last fight came against Tai Tuivasa in February of 2022 and it was midway through the second round he was hit by a big elbow and knocked out. Two fights ago against Chris Daukaus in December of 2021 it was midway through the first round that he finished the fight by knockout. Lewis is averaging 2.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.51 significant strikes per minute. Lewis is averaging 0.60 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 28 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 55 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Lewis might be the most dangerous heavyweight in the division because no matter how much it looks like Lewis is out of a fight, he can still find a knockout.

On the other side of this fight is Sergei Pavlovich who sits with a 15-1 record overall and after losing his first UFC fight he has won three fights in a row. His last fight came against Shamil Abdurakhimov in March of 2022 and it was four minutes into the fight that he was able to win by knockout. Pavlovich is averaging 6.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.45 significant strikes per minute. Pavlovich wants to keep the fight on the feet and he is averaging 0.00 takedowns every 15 minutes. He also stops 66 percent fo his takedown attempts. Chances are also low that Pavlovich will try to finish this fight by submission. 

These are both fighters that have knockout power and there is a good chance that this fighter isn’t going to last long. Pavlovich’s first fight in the UFC ended up being knocked out and I think that is how this one will finish too. This is a big step up in competition for Pavlovic and Lewis is going to take advantage of that. Lewis is going to land the big strikes early and will finish this. Back Lewis by knockout. 

Shane’s Pick Lewis by Knockout

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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