UFC on ESPN 39: Jared Vanderaa vs. Chase Sherman Picks and Predictions

Chase Sherman vs. Jared Vanderaa

UFC: Saturday, July 9th at 9:00 PM ET

Betting Odds: -- Chase Sherman +170 / Jared Vanderaa -200 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman face off on Saturday in a heavyweight bout at UFC on ESPN 39 at The UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Jared Vanderaa comes into this fight with a 12-8 record overall but he has lost three fights in a row. Vanderaa’s last fight came against Aleksei Oleinik in April of 2022. It was midway through the first round that he was put in a bad position and was finished by submission. Vanderaa is averaging 4.52 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.78 significant strikes per minute. Vanderaa mostly wants to keep the fight on the feet, but when he wants to get the fight to the ground, he finds success. Vanderaa is averaging 0.27 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 100 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 20 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this fight is Chase Sherman who sits with a 15-10 record overall but he has lost four fights in a row and seven of his last eight fights. Sherman’s last fight came against Alexandr Romanov in April of 2022 and it was in the first round he lost by submission. In each of the last two games, Sherman has lost by submission. Sherman is averaging 6.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.32 significant strikes per minute. Sherman wants to keep the fight on the feet and is stopping 66 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Sherman needs to make sure he doesn’t get put in a bad spot and get finished by submission. 

On paper, these fighters are pretty similar, and the value is with the underdog. Sherman gets put in bad spots in a lot of fights, but this is a step down in the competition going against Vanderaa. Sherman has a ton of power and he is going to get out to a fast start in this fight. Sherman is going to wear down Vanderaa and that will be the difference as Sherman finishes the fight. Back Sherman by KO/TKO. 

Shane’s Pick Chase Sherman by KO/TKO

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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