UFC on ESPN 38: Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Picks and Predictions

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Nate Maness

UFC: Saturday, June 25th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Umar Nurmagomedov -910 / Nate Maness +560 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Nate Maness and Umar Nurmagomedov face off on Saturday in a heavyweight showdown in the main card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Nate “Mayhem” Maness comes into this fight with a 14-1 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has a perfect 3-0 record. Maness’s last fight came against Tony Gravely in September of 2021 and it was midway through the second round that he finished the fight by knockout. Maness is averaging 2.87 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.72 significant strikes per minute. Maness is averaging 1.52 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 75 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 86 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Umar Nurmagomedov who sits with a 14-0 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has two straight wins. Nurmagomedov’s last fight came against Brian Kelleher in March of 2022 and it was midway through the first round that he finished the fight with a rear-naked choke. He had one takedown in that fight and was oustriking his opponent 18-1 when he finished the fight. Nurmagomedov is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 0.67 significant strikes per minute. He wants to get the fight to the ground and he is averaging 7.56 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 37 percent of his takedown attempts. He also will look for the submission and he is averaging 2.5 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Nurmagomedov does a great job of getting to the fight to the ground and he will do everything in his power to make sure that’s where this fight is fought. Maness has decent wrestling defense, but I expect he is going to have issues going against Nurmagomedov who is such a great wrestler. He is going to get Maness into a bad position and he will finish the fight. Back Nurmagomedov to win this fight by submission. 

Shane’s Pick Umar Nurmagomedov by Submission

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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