Joaquin Buckley and Albert Duraev face off on Saturday in a main card showdown in a middleweight battle at UFC on ESPN 37 at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas.
Joaquin Buckley comes into this fight with a 14-4 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has gone 4-2. Buckley’s last fight came against Abdul Razak Alhassan in February of 2022 and he was able to win that fight by a split decision. Buckley had five takedowns in that fight and that was the difference in the victory. Buckley’s last loss came in January of 2021 and that was by knockout. Buckley is averaging 3.94 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.88 significant strikes per minute. Buckley is averaging 2.0 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 35 percent of his takedown attempts. He only stops 40 percent of his opponents takedown attempts.
On the other side of this fight is Albert Duraev who sits with a 15-3 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has won two fights in a row. Duraev’s last fight came against Roman Kopylov in October of 2021 and it was a unanimous decision victory. Duraev outstruck Kopylov 71-42 and that led to the dominant victory. Duraev is averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.33 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.62 successful takedowns every 15 minutes but is only successful on 20 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 50 percent of his opponents takedown attempts.
Duraev has only had two fights since 2018 but that isn’t much of a concern to me here. Duraev is elite getting the fight to the ground and once he gets there, he controls the fight. Look for Duraev to takedown Buckley, and even though Buckley is a good wrestler, I still give an edge to Duraev. Buckley is only stopping 40 percent of his opponents takedown attempts and he is going to be taken down here with ease. Back Duraev on the money line.
AUTHOR: Shane Mickle
