UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje Picks and Predictions

UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje Picks and Predictions Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC: Saturday, May 7th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Justin Gaethje +150 / Charles Oliveira -180 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje face off on Saturday in the main event of UFC 274 in a lightweight title bout at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. 

Charles “Da Bronx” Oliveira comes into this fight with a 32-8 record overall and he has won ten fights in a row. In Oliveira’s last fight came against Dustin Poirier on December 11th, and it was a dominant victory. Oliveira outstruck Poirier 73-58 and early in the third round, he locked in a rear-naked choke. Two fights ago against Michael Chandler it was early in the second round that he finished the fight by knockout. Oliveira is averaging 3.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.13 significant strikes per minute Oliveira likes to get the fight to the ground and is averaging 2.50 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 41 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. He also stops 57 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. He is also strong at the submissions and is averaging 2.8 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

On the other side of this matchup is Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje who sits with a 23-3 record overall and they have won five of his last six fights. The only loss during that stretch was Khabib Nurmagomedov two fights ago. His last fight came against Michael Chandler on November 6th of 2021 and he won that fight by unanimous decision. Gaethje outstruck Chandler 116-103 and that was enough to secure the victory. Gaethje is averaging 7.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.81 significant strikes per minute. Gaethje’s first goal is to keep the fight on the feet and he stops 73 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

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Gaethje has the knockout power, but Oliveira is a fighter who can take a ton of damage and I expect that is going to be the difference in this fight. Nine of Oliveria’s last ten wins have been by a finish, and that is going to be the case again. Look for Oliveria to avoid the big shot of Gaethje and he will end up putting him in a bad position. Back Oliveria to win by submission.

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Shane’s Pick Charles Oliveira by Submission

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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