UFC on ESPN 35: Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake Collier Picks and Predictions
Jake Collier vs. Andrei Arlovski
UFC: Saturday, April 30th at 7:00 PM ET
The Line: -- Jake Collier +125 Andrei Arlovski -145 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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Andrei Arlovski and Jake Collier face off in a heavyweight showdown in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 35 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski comes into the fight with a 33-20 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. His last fight came Jared Vanderaa in February of 2022 and he was by a split decision. He was actually outstruck 64-70 in the fight but still won. Each of Arlovski’s last three fights have come by decision. Arlovski is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.08 significant strikes per minute. Arlovski is averaging 0.42 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 36 percent of his takedown attempts and he stops 78 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. His last loss came back in February of 2021 against Tom Aspinall by a rear-naked choke.
On the other side of this matchup is Jake Collier who sits with a 13-6 record overall but since coming into the UFC he has gone 5-5. Every win he has had in the UFC has been followed up by a loss. Collier’s last fight came against Chase Sherman in January and midway through the first round he locked in a rear naked choke. Collier is averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.43 significant strikes per minute. Collier is averaging 0.62 takedowns every 15 minutes, but he is only successful on 26 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 67 percent of his oppeonts takedown attempts. Collier is also averaging 0.5 submission attempts every 15 minutes.
Collier looked impressive in his last fight, but Sherman wasn’t all that great, and this is big step up in competition. Arlovski might be 43 years old, but he is the more talented fighter and he has a lot better cardio. Collier isn’t in the best shape and the longer this fight goes on the more issues he is going to have. Arlovski isn’t going to allow this fight to finish early, and he is going to dominate the later rounds. I am not sure that Arlovski will get the finish, but he will win the fight.