UFC Fight Night 207: Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles Picks and Predictions

Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles

UFC: Saturday, April 23rd at 9:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Clay Guida -110 / Claudio Puelles -110 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles face off on Saturday in a lightweight showdown for the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 207 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida comes into this fight with a 37-18 record overall and even though he is older, he has still been competitive in his fights, and a fan favorite. Guida’s last fight came against Leonardo Santos in December of 2021 and in the second round, he finished the fight by rear-naked choke. Two fights ago, Guida faced off against Mark Madsen and he lost by a split decision. Guida is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.76 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 3.26 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 38 percent of his attempts. Guida also stops 68 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Guida has proven that he has been strong with submission attempts too and he is averaging 0.7 submission attempts every 15 minutes.

On the other side of this fight is Claudio Puelles who sits with a 12-2 record overall and he has won four fights in a row. Puelles's last fight came against Chris Gruetzemacher in December of 2021 and it was late in the third round that he lost by a kneebar submission. Puelles is averaging 2.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.98 significant strikes per minute. Puelles is averaging 2.87 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 38 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 55 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

The pressure from Guida is real and it’s going to be an issue for Puelles. Look for Guida to put the pressure on Puelles and Claudio is going to have no answer for it. Guida might not finish the fight, but he is going to get the job done. Back Guida to win this fight. If you are looking for extra value look for Guida to win by submission but I would only throw a few dollars on that since Guida on the money line is already a very nice price. 

Shane’s Pick Clay Guida ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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