UFC Fight Night 204: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall Picks and Predictions

Tom Aspinall vs. Alexander Volkov

UFC: Saturday, March 19th at 4:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Tom Aspinall -115 / Alexander Volkov -105 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall face off on Saturday in a heavyweight showdown in the main event of UFC Fight Night 204 at the O2 Arena in London, England. 

Alexander Volkov comes into this fight with a 34-9 record overall and he has three of his last four fights. Volkov’s last fight came against Marcin Tybura in October of 2021 and it was a pretty dominant victory. He outstruck Tybura 75-58, and that was enough for the victory. Two fights ago against Ciryl Gane, he was outstruck 135-115 and that led to the defeat. The two previous wins came by knockout and he will look for that here. Volkov is averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.95 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.53 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 70 percent of his attempts. He also stops 73 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Volkov is averaging 0.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

On the other side of this matchup is Tom Aspinall who sits with an 11-2 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has won four fights. Aspinall’s last fight came against Serghei Spivac and it was early in the first round that he won by knockout with an elbow. Aspinall is averaging 7.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.37 significant strikes per minute. In that last fight, there wasn’t one significant strike against him. Aspinall likes to get the fight to the ground averaging 2.73 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 100 percent of his takedown attempts and also stops 100 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Aspinall also averages 1.4 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Aspinall is so good at getting the fight to the ground and dominating once it’s there, and it’s something that will happen again in this fight. Look for Aspinal to get the fight to the ground, and he is going to have no issue taking control once he is there. Aspinall might not get the finish again, but he will win the fight. Aspinall really should be closer to -150 or -160. 

Shane’s Pick Tom Aspinall ML -115

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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