UFC Fight Night 196: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori Picks and Predictions

Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa

UFC: Saturday, October 23rd at 3:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Marvin Vettori -120 / Paulo Costa +100 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa face off in a light heavyweight battle for the main event of UFC Fight 196 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori comes into this game with a 17-5-1 record overall but he is coming off a loss against Israel Adesanya where he lost a chance at the belt. Vettori had four takedowns in that fight, but was outstruck 96-58. He had won four fights in a row before that one, and three of those four came by unanimous decision. His last win was back in April over Kevin Holland. Vettori is averaging 3.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04 significant strikes per minute. Vettori likes to get the fight to the ground averaging 2.24 takedowns every 15 minutes, but he is only successful on 47 percent of her takedown attempts. He also stops 78 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Paulo Costa who currently sits with a 13-1 record overall and his first loss came against Israel Adesanya in a championship fight in September of 2020. Costa is averaging 7.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.70 significant strikes per minute. Four of the last five wins by Costa have been knockout and there is no doubt that he is going to look for that in this fight. Costa likes to hunt the knockout early, and he is going to try and finish this fight early. 

Costa has had a longer layoff, but I still like the power he has, and he is going to use that to his advantage in this fight. Look for Costa to wear down Vettori with his power, and he should get closer to that 7 significant strikes per minute. Look for Costa to win this fight and I will be throwing a few dollars on him to win this fight by knockout.

Shane’s Pick Paulo Costa ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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