UFC on ESPN 28: Niklas Stolze vs. Jared Gooden Picks and Predictions

Jarden Gooden vs. Niklas Stolze

UFC: Saturday, July 31st at 9:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Jarden Gooden -200 / Niklas Stolze +170 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Niklas Stolze and Jared Gooden face off on Saturday in a welterweight bout in a main card showdown at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Niklas Stolze comes into this fight with a 12-4 record overall but his only fight in the UFC was a defeat. Stolze’s only loss in the UFC came against Ramazan Emeev in July of 2020, and that was a loss by unanimous decision. Stolze was outstruck by one strike, but he was taken down four times in that fight, and that led to the loss. Stolze is averaging 2.00 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.93 significant strikes per minute. Stolze is averaging 1.00 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 100 percent of his takedown attempts. Stolze also stops 65 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts.

On the other side of this fight is Jared Gooden who comes into this fight with a 17-6 record overall but since coming into the UFC he has lost two fights in a row. Gooden is averaging 4.77 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.60 significant strikes per minute. Gooden is successful on 100 percent of his takedown attempts, but he only has one of them inside the UFC. Gooden is also stopping 83 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts. Gooden did step into this fight on short notice, so the longer this fight goes on, there has to be some concern about how he will hold up. The good news is both of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance so he is good with longer fights. 

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Stolze shouldn't be the underdog in this fight, and he shouldn’t be this big of an underdog for sure. I expect Stolze is going to take advantage of Gooden who takes a lot of damage, and that will lead to Stolze getting the job done and pulling the upset. 

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Shane’s Pick Niklas Stolze +170

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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