UFC on ESPN 28: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia Picks and Predictions

Rafa Garcia vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

UFC: Saturday July 31st at 6:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Rafa Garcia -290 / Chris Gruetzemacher +235 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN Stream unmatched UFC coverage on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

Chris Gruetzemacher and Rafa Garcia face off on Saturday in a lightweight bout in a prelim card showdown at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Chris Gruetzemacher comes into this fight 14-4 record overall but he has lost three of his last four fights. Gruetzemacher’s last fight came against Alexander Hernandez and he was competitive in that fight, but he still lost by unanimous decision. Gruetzemacher has won three fights in the UFC and two of those have been by knockout. Gruetzemacher is a pressure fighter and is averaging 7.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.54 significant strikes per minute. “Gritz” wants to keep the fight on the feet and doesn’t have a takedown since coming to the UFC. Gruetzemacher is also stopping 62 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. In this fight. Gruetzemacher is going to put the pressure on early, and try to really wear down Rafa Garcia early.

On the other side of this matchup is Rafa Garcia who sits with a 12-1 record overall but his only loss inside the UFC was a loss. Garcia faced off with Nasrat Haqparast in March of 2021 and he lost that fight by unanimous decision. Garcia is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.60 significant strikes per minute. Garcia likes to keep the fight on the feet, and he is stopping 100 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Garcia is also averaging 0.0 submission attempts. Garcia suffered a lot of damage early in that last fight, and he needs to do a better job of not taking so much damage early. 

Garcia didn’t look good in his last fight, and I think he is going to lose his second fight in a row. The pressure of Gruetzemacher is going to be too much for Garcia and this one is going to be a big upset. Back Gruetzemacher to pull the upset.

Shane’s Pick Chris Gruetzemacher +235

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, NCAAB, NHL Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Tuesday 12/5/23 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.