UFC on ESPN 28: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia Picks and Predictions

UFC on ESPN 28: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia Picks and Predictions Photo by Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Rafa Garcia vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

UFC: Saturday July 31st at 6:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Rafa Garcia -290 / Chris Gruetzemacher +235 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Chris Gruetzemacher and Rafa Garcia face off on Saturday in a lightweight bout in a prelim card showdown at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Chris Gruetzemacher comes into this fight 14-4 record overall but he has lost three of his last four fights. Gruetzemacher’s last fight came against Alexander Hernandez and he was competitive in that fight, but he still lost by unanimous decision. Gruetzemacher has won three fights in the UFC and two of those have been by knockout. Gruetzemacher is a pressure fighter and is averaging 7.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.54 significant strikes per minute. “Gritz” wants to keep the fight on the feet and doesn’t have a takedown since coming to the UFC. Gruetzemacher is also stopping 62 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. In this fight. Gruetzemacher is going to put the pressure on early, and try to really wear down Rafa Garcia early.

On the other side of this matchup is Rafa Garcia who sits with a 12-1 record overall but his only loss inside the UFC was a loss. Garcia faced off with Nasrat Haqparast in March of 2021 and he lost that fight by unanimous decision. Garcia is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.60 significant strikes per minute. Garcia likes to keep the fight on the feet, and he is stopping 100 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Garcia is also averaging 0.0 submission attempts. Garcia suffered a lot of damage early in that last fight, and he needs to do a better job of not taking so much damage early. 

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Garcia didn’t look good in his last fight, and I think he is going to lose his second fight in a row. The pressure of Gruetzemacher is going to be too much for Garcia and this one is going to be a big upset. Back Gruetzemacher to pull the upset.

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Shane’s Pick Chris Gruetzemacher +235

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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