UFC on ESPN 28: Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt Picks and Predictions
Photo by JOSH MORGAN/Staff
Jason Witt vs. Bryan Barberena
UFC: Saturday, July 31st at 9:00 PM ET
The Line: -- Bryan Barberena -265 / Jason Witt +215 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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Bryan Barberena and Jason Witt face off on Saturday in a welterweight bout in a main card showdown at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena comes into this fight with a 15-7 record overall but coming into this fight he has lost two of his last three fights. Barberena’s last fight was in September of 2020 against Anthony Ivy, and that was a fight he won by unanimous decision. Barberena was taken down five times in that fight, but he outstruck Ivy by almost 30 strikes and that led to the victory. Each of the last two losses for Barberena came by knockout. Barberena is averaging 5.48 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.70 significant strikes per minute. Barberena is averaging 0.28 takedowns every 15 minutes, but he is only successful on 28 percent of his attempts.
On the other side of this matchup is Jason Witt who comes into this fight with an 18-7 record overall but since coming into the UFC he has gone 1-2. Witt’s last fight came against Matthew Semelsberger in March of 2021 and it was 16 seconds into that fight that he was finished by knockout. Witt is averaging 3.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.68 significant strikes per minute. Witt is averaging 3.65 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 50 percent of his takedown attempts. Witt likes to try to lock in submission attempts too averaging 1.8 attempts every 15 minutes.
Barberena is a much better fighter, and he is going to have no issue getting the job done in this game. Barberena is going to control the tempo of this fight, and Barberena is going to win this fight by decision. If you feel comfortable laying the big number you can take Barberana on the money line, but the better play is to take him to win by decision.