UFC on ESPN 26: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot Picks and Predictions

UFC on ESPN 26: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot Picks and Predictions Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jeremy Stephens

UFC: Saturday, July 17th at 10:00 PM EDT

The Line: -- Mateusz Gamrot -250 / Jeremy Stephens +195 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Jeremy Stephens and Mateusz Gamrot face off in the main card of UFC on ESPN 26 in a lightweight bout at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens comes into this fight with a 28-18 record overall, but he has lost five fights in a row. Stephen’s last fight came against Calvin Kattar in May of 2020 and it was midway through the second that he was knocked out. Stephen’s last win came in February of 2018 against Josh Emmett and he won that fight by knockout. Stephens is averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.05 significant strikes per minute. Stephens is averaging 1.16 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on only 38 percent of his takedown attempts. Stephens is also stopping 65 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Stephens has a lot of power, and he needs to get out to a fast start in this one and try to limit the damage. 

Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight with an 18-1 record overall, and since coming into the UFC he has a 1-1 record overall. Gamrot’s last fight was against Scott Holtzman and it was early in the second round he finished the fight by knockout. He outstruck his opponent 39-10 and also had two takedowns. His only loss in the UFC was by a split decision. Gamrot is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.20 significant strikes per minute. Gamrot likes to get the fight to the ground and he is currently averaging 4/91 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 33 percent of his attempts and is also stopping 100 percent of his takedown attempts. 

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This is a step up in competition for Gamrot, and Stephens is going to take advantage of that. Look for Stephens to use his power early, and Garmot isn’t going to be able to take the pressure. Back Stephens to win this game and pull the upset.

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Shane’s Pick Jeremy Stephens +195

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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