UFC on ESPN 26: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot Picks and Predictions

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jeremy Stephens

UFC: Saturday, July 17th at 10:00 PM EDT

The Line: -- Mateusz Gamrot -250 / Jeremy Stephens +195 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN Stream unmatched UFC coverage on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

Jeremy Stephens and Mateusz Gamrot face off in the main card of UFC on ESPN 26 in a lightweight bout at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens comes into this fight with a 28-18 record overall, but he has lost five fights in a row. Stephen’s last fight came against Calvin Kattar in May of 2020 and it was midway through the second that he was knocked out. Stephen’s last win came in February of 2018 against Josh Emmett and he won that fight by knockout. Stephens is averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.05 significant strikes per minute. Stephens is averaging 1.16 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on only 38 percent of his takedown attempts. Stephens is also stopping 65 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Stephens has a lot of power, and he needs to get out to a fast start in this one and try to limit the damage. 

Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight with an 18-1 record overall, and since coming into the UFC he has a 1-1 record overall. Gamrot’s last fight was against Scott Holtzman and it was early in the second round he finished the fight by knockout. He outstruck his opponent 39-10 and also had two takedowns. His only loss in the UFC was by a split decision. Gamrot is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.20 significant strikes per minute. Gamrot likes to get the fight to the ground and he is currently averaging 4/91 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 33 percent of his attempts and is also stopping 100 percent of his takedown attempts. 

This is a step up in competition for Gamrot, and Stephens is going to take advantage of that. Look for Stephens to use his power early, and Garmot isn’t going to be able to take the pressure. Back Stephens to win this game and pull the upset.

Shane’s Pick Jeremy Stephens +195

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, MLB, NHL Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Thursday 4/11/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.