UFC on ESPN 26: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moisés Picks and Predictions

UFC on ESPN 26: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moisés Picks and Predictions Photo by Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Thiago Moisés vs. Islam Makhachev

UFC: Saturday, July 10th at 10:00 PM EDT

The Line: -- Thiago Moisés +540 / Islam Makhachev -850 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moisés face off in the main event of UFC on ESPN 26 in a lightweight bout at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

Islam Makhachev comes into this fight with a 19-1 record overall and he has won seven fights in a row. Makhachev’s last fight came against Drew Dober in May of 2021, and in the third round he locked in an arm triangle to come away with the victory. Over his last four fights, he has won two by submission, and two by unanimous decision. Makhachev is averaging 2.00 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 0.77 significant strikes per minute. Makhachev is averaging 3.46 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 68 percent of his attempts. Makhachev is also stopping 93 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Makhachev is also averaging 1.0 submission attempts every 15 minutes. In this one, Makhachev is going to try and get the fight to the ground. 

Thiago Moisés comes into this fight with a 15-4 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. Moises's last fight was against Alexander Hernandez in February of 2021, and he was able to win that fight by unanimous decision. Each of the last two wins has been a unanimous decision. Moises is averaging 2.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.58 significant strikes per minute. Moises is averaging 1.06 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts. Moises is also stopping 69 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Moises is also averaging 1.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes. In this fight, it’s going to be about Moises being successful when the fight does get to the ground. He needs to not get dominated. 

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Islam Makhachev is the better fighter in this matchup, but he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite in this fight. Moises is going to be competitive in this fight, and as such a big underdog, I am going to take a chance that he pulls the upset. Back Moises to win and pull off the big upset.

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Shane’s Pick Thiago Moisés +540

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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