UFC 264: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Picks and Predictions

Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns

UFC: Saturday, July 10th at 10:00 PM EDT

The Line: -- Stephen Thompson -163 / Gilbert Burns +126 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: PPV Stream unmatched UFC coverage on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson face off on Saturday in the co-main event of UFC 264 in a welterweight showdown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Burns is currently ranked second in the division while Thompson is ranked 4th in the division. 

Gilbert Burns comes into this fight with a 19-4 record overall but his last fight was a loss against Kamara Usman. In that fight, Usman really struggled, and early in the third round, he was finished by knockout. In the six fights before his last loss, Burns was able to come away with the victory. Burns last fight was against Tyron Woodley in May of 2020, and that fight he was able to win by unanimous decision. Three of Burns last four wins have been by unanimous decision. Burns is currently averaging 3.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04 significant strikes per minute. Burns likes to get the fight to the ground, and he is averaging 2.08 successful takedowns every 15 minutes, but he is only successful on 35 percent of his takedown attempts. Burns is also stopping 60 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this fight is Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson who comes into this game with a 16-4-1 record and has won two fights in a row. Thompson’s last fight was against Geoff Neal in December of 2020 and he was able to win the fight by unanimous decision. Thompson had 171 significant strikes in that fight. Thompson is averaging 4.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.80 significant strikes per minute. Thompson is averaging 0.32 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 45 percent of his attempts. Thompson also stops 75 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts, and that's going to be a key in this fight. 

Stephen Thompson is going to keep the fight on the feet, and that is where he has the advantage in this fight. Look for Thompson to use the power in his punches, and his activity to get the job done. Back Thompson on the money line.

Shane’s Pick Stephen Thompson ML

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, NCAAB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Wednesday 2/28/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.