UFC 257: Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar Picks and Predictions

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Matt Frevola and Ottman Azaitar face off on Saturday in a lightweight battle in the main card of UFC 257 at Yas Island. 

Matt “The Streamrolla” Frevola comes into this fight with an 8-1-1 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has three wins, one loss, and one draw. Frevola’s last win came against Luis Pena in October of 2019 and he was able to come away with a split decision victory. Frevola was actually outstruck in that fight, but he had four successful takedowns and that was the difference. Frevola on the season is averaging 3.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.47 significant strikes per minute. Frevola likes to get the fight to the ground and he is currently averaging 3.30 takedowns every 15 minutes. Frevola is only successful on 40 percent of his attempts, but he does stop 75 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Frevola is also averaging 1.4 submission attempts every 15 minutes. In this fight Frevola needs to try and get the fight to the ground and control it that way.

Ottman Azaitar comes into this fight with a 13-0 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has gone 2-0. Azaitar’s last fight came in September of 2020 against Khama Worthy and early in the first round he was able to finish the fight by knockout. Each of Azaitar’s two fights inside the UFC have been ended by knockout in the first round. Azaitar is averaging 8.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.76 significant strikes per minute. Azaitar hasn’t taken any of his fights to the ground, and he also hasn’t tried any submission attempts. There is no doubt that Azaitar has knockout power, but there has to be some questions about how he would perform as the fight goes on. 

Azaitar has the knockout power, but I think Frevola is going to get the fight to the ground early and that will allow him to avoid the knockout. Azaitar is going to wear down as the fight goes on and Frevola will get the job done. Back Frevola to win this game on the money line. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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