UFC Fight Island 7: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown Picks and Predictions

Matt Brown vs. Carlos Condit

Saturday, January, 16th at 3:00 PM ET (Yas Island)

The Line: -- Carlos Condit -160 / Matt Brown +140 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Carlos Condit and Matt Brown face off on Saturday in a welterweight battle at UFC Fight Island 7 in the co-main event at the Flash Forum at Yas Island. 

Carlos “ The Natural Born Killer” Condit comes into this fight with a 31-13 record. Condit has lost five of his last six fights and the only win came in his last fight against Court McGee. In that last fight in early October, Condit had a knockdown and outstruck his opponent by four, which allowed him to seal the unanimous decision.During his UFC career, Condit is averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.52 significant strikes per minute For the most part Condit likes to keep the fight on the feet and during his career he is averaging 0.55 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 55 percent of his takedown attempts. Condit will try to lock in a submission attempt every one in a while and is currently averaging 1.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes. Even though he will try to lock in the submission attempt, his last win that way was all the way back in 2008. 

Matt “ The Immortal” Brown comes into this fight with a 24-17 record but he only has two wins over his last six fights. Brown’s last fight came in May of 2020 against Miguel Baeza and it was early in the second round that he was knocked out. On the season, Matt Brown is averaging 3.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.68 strikes per minute. Brown often will try to get the fight to the ground, averaging 1.60 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 47 percent of his attempts. Brown also stops 63 percent of his opponents' attempts. Browns chin isn’t as strong as it once was, and he needs to make sure he doesn’t get caught in this one. 

Condit is the more well rounded fighter and I don’t think Brown has the gas tank to get the job done in this one. Condit is going to land one of those big punches and Brown is going to go down. I like Condit on the money line and it’s also a lean for Condit to win by the finish.

Shane’s Pick Carlos Condit ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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