UFC 253: Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz Picks and Prediction

UFC 253: Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz Picks and Prediction Photo by Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Jan Blachowicz vs. Dominick Reyes

UFC: Saturday, September 26th at 10:00 PM ET (Yas Island)

The Line: -- Dominick Reyes -280 / Jan Blachowicz +220 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz face off on Saturday at UFC 253 in a light heavyweight title bout at  Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. Reyes is currently ranked 1st in the division while Blachowicz is currently ranked 2nd.

Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes comes into this fight with a 12-1 record overall and since coming into the UFC he has gone 6-1 with his only loss coming in his last fight against Jon Jones. Reyes actually outstruck Jones 116-104 in that fight but he was taken down two times and that led to a unanimous decision loss. Reyes last win came two fights ago against Chris Weidman and in that fight it was only 1:43 into the fight that he was able to win by knockout. Reyes comes into this fight averaging 4.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.00 significant strikes per minute. Reyes is only averaging 0.24 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is only successful on 16 percent of the takedown attempts. Reyes also stops 82 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts. Reyes is also averaging only 0.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Jan Blachowicz comes into this fight with a 26-8 record overall and coming into this fight he has won three fights in a row. Blachowicz's last fight came in February of 2020 against Corey Anderson, a fight that he was able to finish in the first round by knockout. Two of Blachowicz’s last three fights have been wins by knockouts, and the other was a split decision win. Blachowicz is an all-around rounded fighter that is good no matter where the fight happens.. Blahowicz is averaging 3.45 submission attempts every 15 minutes while absorbing 2.77 significant strikes per minute. Blachowicz is averaging 1.16 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 52 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Blachowicz is also averaging 0.3 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

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There isn’t a whole lot of value in this fight, but there is one fighter that is a lot better than the other and that guy is Reyes. Reyes might not get the finish but he is going to have no issue getting the job done. Reyes is a fighter that would make a lot of sense in some parlays.

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Shane’s Pick Dominick Reyes -280

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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