Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier - 7/25/20 UFC on ESPN 14 Pick and Prediction

Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier  - 7/25/20 UFC on ESPN 14 Pick and Prediction Photo by Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Collier vs. Tom Aspinall

Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 7:00 PM (Flash Forum)

The Line: -- Tom Aspinall -220 / Jake Collier +172 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Tom Aspinall and Jake Collier face off in a heavyweight bout on UFC on ESPN 14 at UFC Fight Island, Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates. There will be very limited fans in attendance for this game. Both of these fighters are currently unranked. 

Tom Aspinall will be making his UFC debut when he steps into the octagon for this fight. Overall Aspinall has a 7-2 record since turning pro and his last two fights he was apart of cage warriors. His last fight was against Michael Ben Hamouda and in that fight only 56 seconds into that fight he finished the fight by knockout. Each of his last three fights by Aspinall were by finish. Two were by knockout and the other was finished because his opponent suffered a leg injury. Five of Aspinall’s wins have come by knockout and the other two were by submission. He was disqualified from one fight because of an illegal elbow, and the other loss was by submission. Aspinall has never made it the distance and that could be a problem if this fight goes into the second or third round. Aspinall needs to try and get this fight to finish early.

Jake “The Prototype” Collier comes into this fight with an 11-4 record overall but since coming into the UFC he has only gone 3-3. Collier’s last fight came against Marcel Fortuna all the way back in 2017. Since that point he has dealt with injury and a suspension after he tested positive for higenamine. There has to be some real concern heading into this fight about how he is doing after such a long layoff.Since coming into the UFC Collier has only had one win by decision. 

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Collier is averaging 4.15 successful takedowns every 15 minutes while absorbing 3.69 every successful takedown every 16 minutes. Collier is also averaging 0.72 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and 0.5 submission attempts during the same time period. Much like Aspinall, there has to be some concern about Collier’s conditioning if this fight goes later.

The long layoff for Collier is concerning to me, and he is going to struggle in this fight. Look for Aspinall to get out to the fast start and he will finish this early by knockout. If you want an extra play place a few bucks on Collier to win in the fight round.

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Shane’s Pick Tom Aspinall by finish

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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