Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns - 7/11/20 UFC 251 Pick and Prediction

Gilbert Burns vs. Kamaru Usman

Saturday, July 11, 2020 at 11:45 PM (UFC Fight Island)

The Line: Kamaru Usman -185 / Gilbert Burns +150 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns face off for the welterweight belt at UFC 251which will take place at UFC’s Fight Island in Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates. Like the last few events, there will be no fans in attendance for this event. Usman is the defending champion while Burns is the number one ranked contender. 

Kamara Usman has a 16-1 record since turning pro and since entering the UFC he has a perfect 11-0 record. Each of Usman’s last two fights have had a belt on a line and he was able to come out on top. The Nigerian Nightmare’s last fight in December of 2019 against Colby Covington. In that fight Usman, outstruck Covington 175-143 and late in round five he finally had worn him down enough that he came away with a knockout win. 

Usman does a good job of attacking his opponents weaknesses and he likes to get the fight to the ground, but int he last fight he didn’t have any takedowns and still won. Usman is averaging 4.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.17 significant strikes per minute. Usman is also averaging 3.44 successful takedowns every 15 minutes. 

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Gilbert Burns comes into this fight with a 19-3 record and he is finally getting his chance at a UFC title. Coming into this fight Burns has won six in a row including his last over Tyron Woodley in May of 2020. In that fight, Burns outstruck Woodley 83-28 and also had a takedown, which was enough to win by unanimous decision. 

Burns is averaging 3.15 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.74 significant strikes per minute. Burns is also averaging 2.21 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and he tries 0.7 submission attempts ever 15 minutes. He also stops 50 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

Usman is the favorite in this fight, and for good reason because he is going to get the job done. Usman will decide how he is most comfortable attacking this fight and get the job done. Burns might last the full 25 minutes, but it is going to be an ugly performance where he is defeated.

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Shane’s Pick Kamaru Usman -186

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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