Dan Hooker vs. Dustin Poirier - 6/27/20 UFC on ESPN 12 Pick and Prediction

Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 10:00 PM (UFC APEX)

The Line: Dan Hooker +165 / Dustin Poirier -190 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Dan Hooker and Dustin Poirier face off in a lightweight bout in the main event of the UFC on ESPN 12 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Like the last few events, there will be no fans in attendance for this event. Poirier is currently ranked third in the division while Hooker is ranked fifth.

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier comes into this fight with a 25-6 record but in his last fight, he lost. Poirier’s last fight came against Khabib Nurmagomedov in September of 2019. Poirier was taken down seven times that fight, and in the third round, he lost by a rear-naked choke. Heading into that lost fight, Poirier had won four fights in a row. Three of those four wins were by knockout.

Poirier is averaging 5.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.97 significant strikes per minute. Poirier also likes getting the fight to the ground averaging 1.55 successful takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Poirier is good with the standup game, but if it gets to the ground, he is comfortable and will find success.

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Dan Hooker wants a chance at a title shot and a win in this fight would move him one step closer. Coming into this fight Hooker has a 20-8 record and he has won each of the last three fights. His last fight against Paul Felder went the judges' scorecard and Hooker won by a split decision. In that fight, Hooker had one takedown which might have been enough to come away with a win.

Hooker currently averages 4.76 significant strikes per minute and he absorbs 4.67 significant strikes per minute. Hooker likes to keep the fight on the feet but he can get it to the ground if he wants to. He is averaging 0.43 successful takedowns every 15 minutes, and he also tries 0.3 submission attempts during the same period. Hooker is a kickboxer first and in this fight, he is going to need to use that his advantage.

Hooker is strong with his legs kick, but he still isn’t the better fighter in this one. Look for Poirier to get the fight to the ground and control the fight. Hooker does have the power to end this in one punch, but Poirier is still going to dominate the fight. Back, Poirier to get the job done and even at this number, it’s still a good value.

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