Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz 5/9/20 UFC 249 Picks and Prediction

Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz 5/9/20 UFC 249 Picks and Prediction Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Dominick Cruz vs. Henry Cejudo

Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 11:30 PM (VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena)

The Line: Henry Cejudo -240 / Dominick Cruz +210

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Henry Cejudo and Dominic Cruz face off in the co-main event of UFC 249. There is a bantamweight title on the line in this fight. 

Henry Cejudo comes into this fight with a 15-2 record and has won five fights in a row. Each of the last three fights for Cejudo has been for the belt and he has won each of the flights. Cejudo was the one to stop Demetrious Johnson’s impressive streak and has won each of the last two also. 

In the last fight, Cejudo fought Marlon Moraes and it was a battle, but in the third round he knocked him out with punches on the ground. 

Cejudo has success on the feet but he also likes to take it to the ground. Cejudo averages 2.16 takedowns a fight with an accuracy of 35 percent. Cejudo is one of the best wrestlers in all the UFC, and he likes to use that to his advantage. Even with all his wrestling success, Cejudo has really improved his striking in the last few years. 

Dominick Cruz enters this fight with a 22-2 record but hasn’t found since 2016. Cruz’s last fight went all the way to a decision with Cody Garbrandt, but he lost by unanimous decision. Before that loss, Cruz had won 12 fights in a row. Cruz is averaging 3.53 significant strikes but is only hitting on 31 percent of those chances.  Cruz also loves to get the fight to the ground averaging 3.17 takedowns a fight. This has been a long layoff for Cruz who has dealt with a few different injuries and it will be interesting to see how he reacts early in this fight.

This should be a competitive fight but there is one big problem for Cruz, he has had that long layoff. If this fight would have happened two years ago, I would have selected Cruz, but the layoff is going to really hurt him in this fight. 

It will be a competitive fight early, but as the fight goes on, Cruz is going to lay down. Look for Cejudo to take over the fight late, and finish it in the last two rounds. 

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Shane’s Pick Henry Cejudo -240

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.