Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway - 12/14/19 UFC 245 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports
Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:30 pm (T-Mobile Arena)
The Line: Holloway -172 / Volkanovski +158 -- Over/Under: 4.5
Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski fight Saturday in UFC 245 at the T-Mobile Arena.
Max Holloway enters this fight with a 21-4 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Holloway has won 14 of his last 15 fights and is coming off an July win over Frankie Edgar. Holloway is averaging 6.78 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.26 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 83 percent. Holloway bounced back nicely from his loss to Dustin Poirier, as he went five rounds with Edgar and controlled the fight from start to finish for the most part. Holloway has been a busy fighter this year with already 50 physical minutes in the books, so it’s going to be interesting to see him fight three times in one year for the first time since 2015. Holloway is one of the most well conditioned fighters in the sport who has proven he can be aggressive from start to finish, and he has a come forward pressure style that usually drowns his opponent with overwhelming strikes. Holloway also has a takedown defense of 83 percent, so he usually forces his opponent to fight his style, which is on the feet. A tough fighter who can take a strike with a smile, Holloway still has to like his chances with anybody on his feet. This will be Holloway’s sixth career fight in Las Vegas.
Alexander Volkanovski enters this fight with a 20-1 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout. Volkanovski has won last 17 fights and is coming off a May win over Jose Aldo. Volkanovski is averaging 6.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Volkanovski is averaging 2.78 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Volkanovski is coming off an impressive three round decision against Aldo, as he peppered him with strikes and won all three rounds pretty convincingly. Volkanovski still hasn’t lost since his fourth career fight, which came against Corey Nelson and four of his last six fights have gone the distance. A really strong fighter with extreme pop in his hands, Volkanovski has some of the better standup striking in the sport and counters very well. Volkanovski is also an effective takedown artist with a strong upper body and a wrestling background. This will be Volkanovski’s third career fight in the United States.
Holloway should be the favorite for obvious reasons, and his constant pressure and volume strikes along with his footwork gives you plenty of confidence he can win this fight. However, Volkanovski is a live dog in this fight due to the longer reach, his ability to counter with powerful strikes and his takedown ability. Volkanovski is very strong with a stocky build and he could control Holloway on the canvas if it gets there. I picked Covington as an underdog in the main event, but you can argue Volkanovski is the livest dog of the three big fights.
Give me Volkanovski in an upset.