Derrick Lewis vs. Blagoy Ivanov - 11/2/19 UFC 244 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 10:00 pm (Madison Square Garden)

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Derrick Lewis and Blagoy Ivanov fight Saturday during UFC 244 at Madison Square Garden.

Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 21-7 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has split his last six fights and is coming off a March loss to Junior dos Santos. Lewis is averaging 2.69 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Lewis is coming off a second round knockout loss after getting hurt with a kick to the gut that handicapped him for the remainder of the fight. It’s the first time Lewis has lost back-to-back fights in his career, but now three of his last seven fights have earned fight of the night honors. There’s no surprises with Lewis when he steps into the octagon, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 16 of his last 18 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that flips the fight upside down and eventually ends things. Lewis doesn’t have much of a ground game, and he has a reputation for tiring quickly, so he’s going to live and die with his standup striking. Lewis has improved his takedown defense as of late and his movement has gotten better, but his power striking is either going to make or break him. This will be Lewis’ third career fight in New York.

Blagoy Ivanov enters this fight with a 18-2-1 record and has won 33 percent of his fights by knockout. Ivanov has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a June win over Tai Tuivasa. Ivanov is averaging 3.56 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Ivanov is averaging 0.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Ivanov is coming off a dominating performance where he lands 62 percent of his total strikes and produced two takedowns. Ivanov showed some of that versatility that makes him so intriguing in this weight class, and he’s now 2-1 under the UFC banner. Ivanov is a unique heavyweight who has a background in Sambo, Judo and kickboxing, so he’s far more than your traditional fighter in this division who relies heavily on pure striking power. Ivanov is polished with his wrestling, takedown ability and has six career submission victories, three via the guillotine choke. Ivanov has striking power, but he can be a bit slow with his hands. It’s what Ivanov can do on the canvas that separates him from a lot of other fighters in this division. However, Ivanov is accurate with his hands as well, so he can certainly bang on his feet when needed. This will be Ivanov’s second career fight in New York.

Ivanov is the type of fighter who would typically give Lewis some trouble, as he loves to clinch and has takedown ability. Once a fighter gets his hands on Lewis, that fighter is in control and makes the Black Beast very uncomfortable. While there’s good reason to pick Ivanov in this contest, Lewis has a massive size advantage in this fight, which includes a four-inch height advantage, a six-inch reach advantage and a 1.5-inch leg reach advantage. You give Lewis that much of an edge with his striking power, and you have to like his chances to keep his opponent at a distance and eventually land something devastating. 

This fight could truly go either way, but I like Lewis to get a much needed bounce back victory.

Randy’s Pick Derrick Lewis

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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