Washington (37-54) vs St. Louis (49-43)
July 9, 2025 at 07:45 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: St. Louis +1.5 — Over/Under: +7.5
In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 9, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Washington Nationals (37-54, 19-26 Away) registered back-to-back series wins over the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers, but then were swept by the Boston Red Sox at home, and sacked their general manager and manager after that. Their luck hasn’t changed in Game 1 of the series against the Cardinals, as the Nats lost 4-2. Jake Irvin took the loss after allowing four runs on six hits with three strikeouts and four walks in 6.0 innings.
This year, the Nationals average 4.41 runs per game (16th in the MLB) on a .247/.314/.390 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals’ staff has a 5.16 ERA (28th) and 1.40 WHIP (26th). James Wood leads the Nationals with a .287 batting average, 23 home runs, and 68 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Nationals is MacKenzie Gore, who is 3-8 in 18 starts this season, with a 3.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 104.1 innings.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals (49-43, 27-17 Home) swept the Cleveland Guardians on the road but then suffered defeats to the Pirates, who swept them in three games, and to the Cubs. St. Louis opened the current series against Washington with a 4-2 victory on Tuesday. Brendan Donovan led the offense with two RBI, while Sonny Gray got the win after allowing two runs on five hits with six strikeouts and one walk across 5.0 innings of work.
This season, the Cardinals average 4.55 runs per game (12th in the MLB) on a .251/.321/.392 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Cardinals’ staff has a 4.08 ERA (19th) and 1.27 WHIP (18th). Willson Contreras leads the Cardinals with a .251 batting average, 11 home runs, and 51 RBI this season.
Andre Pallante will take the mound for the Cardinals on Wednesday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 5-4 record in 17 starts this year with a 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 94.1 innings.
Why the Nationals will cover
The Nationals have won four of their last five games as road underdogs following a road loss.
The Cardinals have lost seven of their last nine games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a road loss.
The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against the Nationals following a win.
Total Runs Facts
Nine of the Nationals’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Cardinals’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last six games against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Nationals and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
Matchup/League Facts
The Cardinals rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (254).
The Cardinals rank T4th in the league for home runs allowed this season (84).
The Nationals rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (691).
The Nationals rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.263).
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction
The Cardinals won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last five, while this season, the Cards won all four meetings. However, I am backing the Nationals to stay close and put up a fight in this one, and even if they lose, I don’t think it will be more than a run margin. MacKenzie Gore allowed more than two runs in just one of his previous nine starts and is Washington’s best pitcher this season. In my opinion, he has an advantage over Andre Pallante, who surrendered multiple runs in 12 of his last 14 starts, and although he shut out the Pirates, the worst offense in the MLB, in his most recent start, Pallante registered a 4.91 ERA in June. Gore should win this match-up, and I am backing the Nats to cover.