Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 8/23/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

3 months ago

Aug 22, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) slides safely into second base with a double against Washington Nationals second baseman Luis García Jr. (2) during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Washington Nationals	Philadelphia Phillies
Team Records	53-75	75-54
Where	Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
When	Saturday, August 23, 2025
Time	06:05 PM EDT
TV	MASN2

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 23rd at the Citizens Bank Park in the second game of this series, with the Mariners having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 74-54 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 40-22 home record, and are 55-65 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-5 home defeat by the Nationals, which ended their previous four-game losing streak. Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Mets and the Braves next.

The Phillies have a .258 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .423 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 158 hits and in batting average with .300, while Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 109 RBI and a team-high 45 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 1-7 record, 6.92 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 51-75 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 25-39 home record and are 64-54 in over/under. They are coming off 5-4 road victory over the Phillies, and have three consecutive wins. Over is 4-2-4 in their last 10 games, and are playing the Yankees and the Rays next.

The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. James Wood leads the Nationals with 123 hits, while CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average. James Wood adds a team-high 83 RBI and leads the team in home runs, with 26.

Mitchell Parker (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 7-13 record, 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

The Phillies have won each of their last 10 home games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
The Nationals have lost each of their last six Saturday games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against the Nationals following a home loss.
The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Citizens Bank Park following a road win.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against NL East opponents.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Phillies have lost five of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last three road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Nationals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six road games.
The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four road games.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Phillies’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Three of the Nationals’ last four road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last nine Saturday games against NL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six Saturday night games.

Matchup/League Facts

The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1175).
The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.31).
The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.270).

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

The Nationals are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies, having won their last two visits in Philly. Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -240 home favorites. In no way, shape or form I’m laying -240 moneyline when Nola is on the mound. He has been absolutely terrible this season, and his first start after coming back from the IL has been also atrocious, having given up 6 runs in just 2.1 innings pitched. Nola has been even weaker at home, with a 7.71 home ERA this season, and Parker has also been horrendous lately for the Nationals, with a 9.97 ERA across his last five starts. On top of that, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the league to follow Parker, so I expect to be a ton of runs in this game. Take the over 9.5 in this one.