| MATCHUP | Washington Nationals | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 15-17 | 10-20 |
| Spread | +1.5 -136 | -1.5 113 |
| Moneyline | +153 | -186 |
| Total | Over 8 (-102) | Under 8 (-118) |
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York | |
| When | Thursday, April 30, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, April 30th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 10-20 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL East. They have a 6-11 home record and are coming off a 2-14 loss at home against the Nationals. Their previous three games were an 8-0 win at home against the Nationals, and a 0-3 loss and a 1-3 loss at home against the Rockies.
The Mets have a .227 batting average this season, .290 OBP and .340 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Bo Bichette is the team’s best hitter with a .236 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 14. Francisco Alvarez adds a team‑high 4 home runs.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-3 record, 3.90 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Washington Nationals Preview
The Washington Nationals have a 14-17 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL East. They have a 11-7 away record and are coming off a 14-2 win on the road against the Mets. Their previous three games were an 0-8 loss on the road against the Mets, and a 2-1 win and a 6-3 win on the road against the White Sox.
The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.11 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .286 batting average. James Wood leads the team in RBI with 24, also adding a team‑high 10 home runs.
Miles Mikolas (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 0-3 record, 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Betting Trends: April 30, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 3.90
- Home Record: 1-2
- Last 5 against Nationals: 3-2
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Nationals have lost each of their last six games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Mets have won 12 of their last 13 Thursday day home games against National League opponents.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Nationals following a home loss.
- The Mets have won the first inning in eight of their last nine Thursday games.
- The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Citi Field against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday day games against the Nationals at Citi Field.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas Record this season: 0-3 ERA: 8.49
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Mets: 1-3
Why the Washington Nationals will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last eight day games following a loss.
- The underdogs have won four of the Mets’ last five games.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Nationals have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 road games after playing the previous day.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games at Citi Field against NL East opponents.
- The Nationals have won the first inning in five of their last six games against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Fifteen of the Mets’ last 17 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Three of the Nationals’ last four games as underdogs against the Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last seven games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine Thursday games.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts
- CJ Abrams has hit a home run in four of the Nationals’ last 12 day games.
- Miles Mikolas has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his seven previous Thursday day appearances against teams that held a losing record.
- CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 12 road games against NL opponents.
- Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (13) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.340).
- The Mets rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (102).
- The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (51).
- The Nationals rank 30th in the league for runs allowed this season (181).
Nationals vs Mets Prediction
The Nationals re 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Mets and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in New York.
In this Nationals vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -210 home favorites. The Mets have been bad this season and are coming off a beatdown yesterday by 2-14 and are -210 home favorites today ? As bad as Mikolas has been for the Nats, he has been better on the road, while Peralta has been weaker at home for the Mets with a 4.22 home ERA. Take the Nationals at +1.5 runs in this one, as this bet is a pure fade of the Mets in that price.