Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros Prediction 07/30/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 30, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals (44-63, 23-32 Away) lost to the San Diego Padres, but answered with victories against the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins. Washington opened the series against the Astros with a narrow win before losing Game 2 on Tuesday, 7-4. Luis Garcia Jr. led the offense with two RBI, while Mike Soroka pitched for 3.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on four hits with four strikeouts and no walks. Andrew Chafin took the loss.

This year, the Nationals average 4.32 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .244/.310/.389 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals’ staff has a 5.07 ERA (28th) and 1.39 WHIP (26th). James Wood leads the Nationals with a .263 batting average, 24 home runs, and 71 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Nationals is MacKenzie Gore, who is 4-10 in 21 starts this season, with a 3.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 117.2 innings.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros (61-47, 34-24 Home) lost against the Seattle Mariners, swept the Arizona Diamondbacks, and then suffered a sweep by the Athletics. The Astros were on a five-game losing run following a Game 1 defeat to the Nationals, but managed to snap that negative streak with a 7-4 victory on Tuesday. Christian Walker led the offense with two RBI, while Jason Alexander pitched for 4.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on five hits with six strikeouts and two walks. Bennett Sousa was credited with the win.

This season, the Astros average 4.27 runs per game (19th in the MLB) on a .256/.321/.403 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Astros’ staff has a 3.71 ERA (7th) and 1.19 WHIP (2nd). Christian Walker leads the Astros with a .238 batting average, 13 home runs, and 55 RBI this season.

Ryan Gusto will take the mound for the Astros on Wednesday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 6-4 record in 13 starts this year with a 5.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 80.0 innings.

Why the Nationals will beat the Astros

• The road team has won nine of the Astros’ last 10 games.
• The Astros have lost each of their last four home games following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last 12 road games against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games at Daikin Park against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Nationals’ last six day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Astros’ last six day games at Daikin Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last three day games against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The Nationals rank 28th in the league for runs allowed this season (564).
• The Nationals rank 27th in the league for walks this season (310).

Nationals vs Astros Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. The Nationals were better in three of the last four, and I am backing them to get an edge here and clinch the series, as I trust MacKenzie Gore more than Ryan Gusto. Gore had one off game this month when he allowed eight runs against his former team, the Padres, but was solid in the rest of the games. Gusto, on the other hand, was demoted to a reliever because of poor displays, but due to many injuries to pitchers, he is slated to start this game. Gusto was destroyed by the Athletics in his previous appearances, surrendering eight runs in 3.1 innings, and he’s not having the best of his rookie season. I think he’ll struggle here. Go with the Nationals.