Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros Prediction 07/28/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 28, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals (43-62, 22-31 Away) lost the opening series of the second half to the San Diego Padres, but responded with series wins over the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins. Following a 1-0 loss in Game 1 against Minnesota, Washington responded with 9-3 and 7-2 victories. In Sunday’s 7-2 W, Alex Call led the offense with two RBI, while Jake Irvin got the win after allowing two runs on five hits with two strikeouts and no walks across 7.0 innings of work.

This year, the Nationals average 4.32 runs per game (18th in the MLB) on a .244/.310/.389triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals’ staff has a 5.14 ERA (29th) and 1.41 WHIP (26th). James Wood leads the Nationals with a .263 batting average, 24 home runs, and 70 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Nationals is Brad Lord, who is 2-5 in seven starts this season, with a 3.39 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 69.0 innings.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros (60-46, 33-23 Home) lost a series to the Seattle Mariners, swept the Arizona Diamondbacks, and then were swept by the Athletics in four games at home, which came as a massive surprise. Houston scored just seven runs in that series, including one in the latest 7-1 defeat on Sunday. Mauricio Dubon drove in the lone run for the offense, while Colton Gordon took the loss after allowing four runs on six hits with six strikeouts and no walks in 5.0 innings.

This season, the Astros average 4.33 runs per game (16th in the MLB) on a .257/.322/.406 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Astros’ staff has a 3.70 ERA (7th) and 1.19 WHIP (2nd). Jose Altuve leads the Astros with a .280 batting average, 17 home runs, and 53 RBI this season.

Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Astros on Monday. The 31-year-old left-hander has an 11-4 record in 20 starts this year with a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 128.0 innings.

Why the Astros will cover

• The Astros have won nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against AL West opponents following a road win.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last six home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Nationals’ last 12 games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Nationals’ last seven night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The Nationals rank 28th in the league for runs allowed this season (556).
• The Nationals rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (805).

Nationals vs Astros Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. The Nationals did win four of the last five H2Hs, but I am backing the Astros to win and cover here. After being swept by the A’s in four games in Houston, the Astros will be highly motivated to bounce back and open this series with a win. Framber Valdez allowed more than two runs only once in his previous ten starts, and I think he will have another quality start on Monday. Brad Lord, on the other hand, is a reliever and not a real starter, so I am not sure hom many innings he will give, but I am pretty certain the Astros will get to him early on. Back the Astros to win and cover.