Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 7/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 3, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates at first base after hitting a RBI-single during the third inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
Team Records
42-46
45-44
Spread
+1.5 -149
-1.5 124
Moneyline
+140
-169
Total
Over 7.5 (-112)
Under 7.5 (-108)
Where
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
When
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Time
04:10 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners meet Saturday in MLB action from T-Mobile Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Shane Bieber for the start here and Bieber is 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. Logan Gilbert will get the start for the Mariners here and is 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their 2-0 win over the Mariners from Friday to improve to 42-46 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the San Francisco Giants.
Blue Jays Win Back-To-Back Games
Going into Friday, Andres Gimenez has 63 hits with 13 doubles, a triple, 7 home runs and 34 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 96 hits with 22 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 73 hits with 11 doubles, 19 home runs, 54 RBIs and a team-high 110 strikeouts while George Springer also has 11 doubles, 8 homers with 21 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 81 hits with 13 doubles, 4 home runs and 34 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 59 hits with 14 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs.
Seattle Mariners Recap
The Seattle Mariners come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Blue Jays on Friday to sit at 45-44 this season. After this series, the Mariners will head on the road for a set against the Miami Marlins.
Mariners Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped
Entering Friday, Luke Raley has 14 home runs and 35 RBIs this season. Cole Young’s added 82 hits with 12 doubles, a triple, 9 home runs and 41 RBIs and Cal Raleigh has 34 hits with 5 doubles, 8 home runs and 24 RBIs as well this season. Randy Arozarena has 83 hits with 20 doubles, 8 home runs and 37 RBIs as well on the year. Josh Naylor also has 81 hits with 8 home runs and 34 RBIs as well on the year. Julio Rodriguez has also added 89 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 40 RBIs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: July 4, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert Record this season: 6-5 ERA: 3.42
Home Record: 5-3
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
The Blue Jays have lost each of their last four day games against AL West opponents.
The Mariners have won six of their last seven home games following a loss.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against American League opponents.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against AL West opponents.
The Mariners have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against American League opponents.
The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber Record this season: 0-0 ERA: 6.00
Road Record: 0-0
Last 5 against Mariners: 2-0
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
The Blue Jays have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against the Mariners.
The Mariners have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against the Blue Jays following a loss.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against the Mariners.
The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as home favorites against the Blue Jays following a loss.
The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against American League opponents.
The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Blue Jays’ last eight games as underdogs against the Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
Eight of the last nine games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Blue Jays’ last six day games at T-Mobile Park.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in 11 of the last 13 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
Josh Naylor has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with his team as a favorite against the Blue Jays.
Logan Gilbert has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 14 home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Cole Young has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last nine day games against opponents that held a losing record.
Logan Gilbert has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Randy Arozarena ranks 10th in the league in Steals (19) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
Andres Gimenez has hit a home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games as underdogs against the Mariners.
Shane Bieber has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Shane Bieber has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
Ernie Clement ranks T6th in the league in Hits (96) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (224).
The Mariners rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (80).
The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for walks this season (244).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction
I’m backing Toronto here. I just think that Toronto’s the better team right now and I don’t trust Seattle at this price with Logan Gilbert being less effective at home, which is not something we’re used to seeing over the years. Shane Bieber has not looked great in limited action, but I think he can get it back here so give me the Blue Jays here.
