| MATCHUP | Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 94-68 | 90-72 |
| When | Wednesday, October 15, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:08 PM EDT | |
| TV | FS1 | |
In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, October 15th at the T-Mobile Park in Game 3 of the ALCS, with the Mariners having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 95-74 record this season and were placed first in the AL West. The Mariners have a 53-31 home record and are 92-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 10-3 road victory over the Blue Jays in Game 2, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 games.
The Mariners have a .244 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Mariners in hits in the postseason with 10, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .357 batting average. Jorge Polanco leads the team both in RBI with 8, and in home runs, with 3.
George Kirby (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 0-0 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the postseason. In the regular season, he had a 10-8 record, 4.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 97-71 record this season and were placed first in the AL East. They have a 41-42 road record, and are 90-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-10 home defeat by the Mariners in Game 2 of the series, and have lost three of their last four games. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games.
The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Ernie Clement leads the Blue Jays with 10 hits and he is the team’s best hitter with a .476 batting average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the team both in RBI with 9 and in home runs with 3.
Shane Bieber (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 0-0 record, 6.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in the postseason. In the regular season, he had a 4-2 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 15, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby Record this season (inc. playoffs): 10-8 ERA: 4.10
- Home Record: 5-4
- Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
- The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight road playoff games.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night playoff games after not playing the previous day.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road playoff games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber Record this season (inc. playoffs): 4-2 ERA: 3.77
- Road Record: 2-1
- Last 5 against Mariners: 1-2
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The underdogs have won each of the last five games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
- The Mariners have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last 13 games at T-Mobile Park.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against the Blue Jays following a win.
- The Blue Jays have won the first inning in four of their last five night games.
- The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
- The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 Wednesday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Blue Jays’ last six games as underdogs against the Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the last five games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games at T-Mobile Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last five home games.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in four of the Mariners’ last five games as home favorites against AL opponents.
- Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Blue Jays.
- Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- George Springer has hit a home run in two of the Blue Jays’ last three games against the Mariners.
- Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against AL West opponents.
- Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
- The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
The Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings against the Mariners, and have won their last five visits in Seattle. Over is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -135 home favorites. The Mariners shocked everyone by winning both games in Toronto and now have a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, and are playing the next two games at their home court. I don’t trust Kirby to lead Seattle to a third straight win, as he has been shaky in the regular season, and was torched by Toronto last season. I don’t trust Bieber for the Jays either, as he has given up 2+ runs in six of his last seven starts. The total is set at just 7 runs, and I don’t expect 6 or less runs in this game. Game 2 had 13 total runs, and Toronto’s offense has been red-hot in the playoffs, averaging 6.3 runs per game. Take the over 7 in this one.