Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7/12/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 5, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) hits a RBI single in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Blue Jays
San Diego Padres
Team Records
45-50
47-48
Spread
-1.5 125
+1.5 -150
Moneyline
-131
+109
Total
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (-101)
Where
Petco Park, San Diego, California
When
Sunday, July 12, 2026
Time
04:10 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres meet Sunday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Kevin Gausman for the start here and Gausman is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA and 108 strikeouts this season. San Diego will start German Marquez here and Marquez is 4-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 24 strikeouts this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to rebound from an 8-7 loss at the hands of the Padres on Saturday to sit at 45-50 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head home for a series against the Chicago White Sox.
Blue Jays Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped
Entering Saturday, Andres Gimenez has 66 hits with 14 doubles, a triple, 7 home runs and 37 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 102 hits with 23 doubles, 7 home runs and 30 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 78 hits with 11 doubles, 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and a team-high 114 strikeouts while George Springer also has 11 doubles, 9 homers and 22 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 85 hits with 14 doubles, 5 home runs and 37 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 59 hits with 14 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their win over Toronto on Saturday to sit at 47-48 this season. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the Kansas City Royals.
Padres Snap Two-Game Slide
Going into Saturday, Jackson Merrill has 76 hits with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 37 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 37 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 102 hits with 19 doubles and 35 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 69 hits with 7 doubles, 8 home runs and 35 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 63 hits with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 52 RBIs as well on the year.
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: July 12, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: German Marquez Record this season: 4-2 ERA: 5.02
Home Record: 2-2
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-0
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Padres have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 19 games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games following a loss.
The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Petco Park.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against AL East opponents.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman Record this season: 4-8 ERA: 4.32
Road Record: 2-4
Last 5 against Padres: 2-1
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
The Blue Jays have won each of their last six day games against NL West opponents following a road loss.
The Padres have lost eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against NL West opponents.
The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as road favorites.
Total Runs Facts
Eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Padres’ last three games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as home underdogs.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
German Marquez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances against AL East opponents.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight day games against opponents that held a losing record.
Rodolfo Durán has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T5th in the league in Steals (23) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
George Springer has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances with the Blue Jays as road favorites against NL opponents.
Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL West opponents.
Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 14 appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
Kazuma Okamoto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last seven games as favorites against NL West opponents.
Ernie Clement ranks T5th in the league in Hits (105) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (374).
The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (702).
The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for walks this season (262).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m on the Blue Jays here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but the thing is that I think the Blue Jays have the edge in starting pitching in this game, and I don’t think the Padres can overtake that with the start of German Marquez in this game. I think Gausman is the far better starting option here and I look for the Blue Jays to win the series here. Give me the Blue Jays.
