Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7/10/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 6, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) throws to starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) for an out at first base against the San Francisco Giants in the third inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Blue Jays
San Diego Padres
Team Records
44-49
46-47
Spread
-1.5 166
+1.5 -202
Moneyline
+104
-125
Total
Over 8.5 (-108)
Under 8.5 (-111)
Where
Petco Park, San Diego, California
When
Friday, July 10, 2026
Time
09:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres meet Friday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Shane Bieber for the start here and Bieber is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 9 strikeouts this season. JP Sears will start for the Padres and is 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their 10-0 win over San Francisco last time out to sit at 44-49 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head home for a series against the Chicago White Sox.
Blue Jays Win Back-To-Back Games
Andres Gimenez has 66 hits with 14 doubles, a triple, 7 home runs and 37 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 102 hits with 23 doubles, 7 home runs and 30 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 78 hits with 11 doubles, 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and a team-high 114 strikeouts while George Springer also has 11 doubles, 9 homers and 22 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 85 hits with 14 doubles, 5 home runs and 37 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 59 hits with 14 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks to sit at 46-47 this season. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the Kansas City Royals.
Padres Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped
Jackson Merrill has 76 hits with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 37 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 37 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 102 hits with 19 doubles and 35 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 69 hits with 7 doubles, 8 home runs and 35 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 63 hits with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 52 RBIs as well on the year.
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: July 10, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: JP Sears Record this season: 2-1 ERA: 4.70
Home Record: 1-0
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-0
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a win.
The Padres have won each of their last five games against American League opponents following a loss.
The Padres have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a win.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 9.00
Road Record: 0-1
Last 5 against Padres: –
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
The Blue Jays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Padres.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Blue Jays’ last seven road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Six of the Padres’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as underdogs.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Padres’ last 11 home games against American League opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
JP Sears has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with his team as a home favorite against AL opponents .
JP Sears has recorded four or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a home favorite.
Miguel Andujar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Rodolfo Durán has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two games against AL East opponents.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T5th in the league in Steals (23) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
Kazuma Okamoto has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four road games against NL opponents.
Shane Bieber has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Shane Bieber has recorded five or more strikeouts in 27 of his last 31 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 11 road games against NL West opponents.
Ernie Clement ranks T7th in the league in Hits (102) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (363).
The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (684).
The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for walks this season (254).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m backing the Blue Jays here. I’m not ready to give up on Shane Bieber as I think he’s a better starting pitcher than what he’s shown in some of his recent starts since returning from injury. JP Sears has been more than hittable and the Padres just aren’t playing great baseball as a whole right now. I’ll side with Toronto in this one.
