Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction 4/25/25 MLB Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees meet Friday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Blue Jays vs Yankees pick. We will examine: 

The Toronto Blue Jays recent form and player performance

The New York Yankees recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Toronto Blue Jays

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Yankees

Recent betting trends in games played between the Blue Jays and Yankees

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Blue Jays vs Yankees game

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Jays’ season kicked off with a series tie in four games against the rival Baltimore Orioles, then came a sweep over the Washington Nationals and a sweep by the New York Mets. Toronto would keep the trend up with three straight wins over the Boston Red Sox, but then lost the finale by a run. After a split versus the O’s, Toronto beat the Braves in a series then lost a set versus the Mariners. The Jays lost their first two versus the Houston Astros this week, falling 7-0 and 5-1 in a pair of rough offensive outings. 

In the Wednesday finale Toronto was out-hit 13-5 in a loss 3-1. Starting pitcher Bowden Francis left after 4.2 innings with three earned on eight hits and a walk. 

As starting pitcher for Friday’s opener, the Jays are sending out Jose Berrios. This year Berrios is 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA in five starts over 28.2 innings. Berrios is 100-78 with a 4.09 ERA in 249 career games (248 starts). 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

Over on the Yankees’ side, they drilled the Milwaukee Brewers for a sweep in their first set, then lost a series versus the Arizona Diamondbacks before taking two of three versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. New York would lose their next two series versus the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants before a sweep of the Royals. The Yankees won three of four versus the rival Rays last weekend, then fell in their first two games versus the Guardians this week 6-4 and 3-2. 

On Wednesday in game three, the Yankees scored four runs in the first two innings, riding 11 team hits to a sweep-halting win 5-1. Starter Carlos Rodon posted 7.0 innings of clean ball with four hits, two walks and eight strikeouts. Paul Goldschmidt led the offense with three hits and an RBI, while Ben Rice scored twice. It’ll be Carlos Carrasco in the starter slot for the Friday game. This year Carrasco is 2-1 with a 6.53 ERA in five games (four starts) and 20.2 innings total. Carrasco is 112-104 with a 4.17 ERA in 329 career games (281 starts). 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won eight of their last nine games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Yankees have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have won five of their last seven games as underdogs against the Yankees following a loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Yankee Stadium against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games at Yankee Stadium against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games as favorites against the Blue Jays have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Blue Jays and Yankees.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Blue Jays’ last six night games at Yankee Stadium.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction 

I’m going to try the Jays here. Toronto should get a reasonable start out of Berrios, though he’s been somewhat choppy in his last pair. In those two games Berrios has seven earned in 11.0 innings on 11 hits and five walks total. In his previous start though, Berrios had 7.0 innings with just one earned versus the Red Sox in a win, though. As for Carrasco, he’s got two fairly rough starts (8.1 innings; eight earned combined on 12 hits and three walks) and one good start (5.0 innings; one earned in a win over KC) in his last three outings. 

Toronto couldn’t get their offense going very well in Wednesday’s loss to the Astros, mustering just one run and five team hits. Overall the pitching was pretty good though, outside of the three-run second inning. That makes five straight losses for the Jays, but if Berrios can notch a quality outing Friday I think they’ve got a shot. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +130