Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction 5/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
May 20, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) singles during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Team Records
22-27
30-20
Spread
+1.5 -172
-1.5 142
Moneyline
+123
-149
Total
Over 8 (-117)
Under 8 (-103)
Where
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
When
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Time
07:05 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees meet Tuesday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Braydon Fisher for the start and Fisher is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 24 strikeouts this season. This will be Fisher’s first career start against the Yankees. The New York Yankees will send out Carlos Rodon for the start here and Rodon is 0-0 with a 5.63 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Toronto, Rodon is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 29 strikeouts.
Toronto Blue Jays Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their 2-1 win over the Yankees from Wednesday to sit at 22-27 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head home for a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Blue Jays Snap Two-Game Slide
Andres Gimenez has 38 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 27 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 53 hits with 13 doubles and 16 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 39 hits with 5 doubles, 10 home runs, 27 RBIs and a team-high 60 strikeouts while George Springer also has 5 doubles, 3 homers with 9 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 50 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 22 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 39 hits with 6 doubles, 5 home runs and 21 RBIs.
New York Yankees Recap
The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to Toronto last time out to sit at 30-20 this season. After this series, the Yankees will take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a series at home.
Yankees Have Two-Game Win Streak Halted
Giancarlo Stanton has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs while Ben Rice has 46 hits with 10 doubles, 16 home runs and 33 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 46 hits with 8 doubles, 16 home runs and 30 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 48 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs and 32 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 43 hits with 9 doubles, 5 home runs and 18 RBIs as well on the year.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: May 21, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 5.63
Home Record: 0-0
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
The Yankees have won each of their last nine night games at Yankee Stadium following a loss.
The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Yankees following a win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last seven Thursday night games.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four night games following a win.
The Yankees have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Thursday night games as home favorites.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Braydon Fisher Record this season: 2-1 ERA: 3.08
Road Record: 0-0
Last 5 against Yankees: 0-0
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven Thursday night games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Yankees have lost six of their last nine games as favorites after playing the previous day.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 13 Thursday games as underdogs.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites after playing the previous day.
Total Runs Facts
Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Yankees’ last six home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Yankees’ last seven games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Blue Jays’ last five games as road underdogs.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Carlos Rodon has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous home appearances against the Blue Jays.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 home appearances.
Giancarlo Stanton has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Ben Rice ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.654) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in four of his last five Thursday night appearances.
Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in 22 of his last 23 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (73).
The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (226).
The Blue Jays rank T1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (342).
The Blue Jays rank T29th in the league for triples this season (2).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction
I’m on the Blue Jays in this one. I am just not convinced that Rodon is 100% back to top speed at the major league level and I think that could prove costly here. The Blue Jays are usually a solid team against left-handed pitching and I think Toronto salvages a big split with a win here.
