Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction 10/7/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

Randy Chambers

13 hours ago

Oct 5, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts after a walk in the ninth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game two of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Toronto (94-68) vs New York (94-68)

October 7, 2025 at 08:08 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: New York -1.5 — Over/Under: +7.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees meet Tuesday in Game 3 ALDS MLB action at Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction. This article will include a Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are a win away from making the ALCS for the first time since the 2016 season. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .392 on the season, have a .420 OBP, and a .797 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 6 hits and 6 RBI while Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement have combined for 9 hits and 8 RBI.

Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. Bieber is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his postseason career. Bieber is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA and 27 strikeouts in his career against the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees need a win to force a game 4 on Wednesday. The New York Yankees are batting .244 on the season, have a .293 OBP, and a .339 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees pitching staff has a 6.07 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the New York Yankees with 8 hits and 2 RBI while Anthony Volpe and Cody Bellinger have combined for 9 hits and 6 RBI.

Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 203 strikeouts this season. Rodon is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA and 34 strikeouts in his postseason career. Rodon is 2-3 with a 4.72 ERA and 54 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon Record this season (inc. playoffs): 18-9 ERA: 3.13
Home Record: 10-4
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-3

Why the New York Yankees will win

The home team has won 10 of the Yankees’ last 11 games.
The Blue Jays have lost five of their last six road games against the Yankees following a win.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five playoff games as road underdogs.
The favorites have covered the run line in six of the Blue Jays’ last seven games.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games as road underdogs.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber Record this season: 4-2 ERA: 3.57
Road Record: 2-1
Last 5 against Yankees: 1-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

The Blue Jays have won each of their last nine games following a home win.
The Yankees have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a road loss.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night playoff games after not playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

Fourteen of the Yankees’ last 16 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Blue Jays’ last six road playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Blue Jays’ last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Blue Jays and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

Anthony Volpe has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
Trent Grisham has hit a home run in two of his three previous home appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in nine of his last 12 appearances at Yankee Stadium.
Carlos Rodon has recorded five or more strikeouts in 25 of his last 26 home appearances.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents.
Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.688) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games against AL East opponents.
Shane Bieber has recorded a win in four of his five previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents .
Shane Bieber has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 12 games as road underdogs against AL opponents.
Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (820).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.455).
The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.333).
The Blue Jays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1099).