Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction 4/20/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Tigers vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Monday, April 20th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 12-10 this season after they won two of the first three games in this series by scores of 0-1, 4-1, and 6-2. In game three, Detroit scored four runs in the fifth inning to blow the game open, before adding one more in the ninth in the win. The Tigers recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Dingler, who went 4-5 with one home run and four RBIs. Valdez allowed three hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Seabold allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Detroit swept the Royals in three games and swept the Marlins in three games. 

This season, Detroit has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .220 opponent batting average, while they have scored 94 runs with a .243 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Dillon Dingler has led the Tigers with five home runs and 18 RBIs, while Riley Greene has added one home run and 12 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Jack Flaherty, who is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 20.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 8-13 this year after they lost game three by a score of 6-2 on Sunday afternoon. Boston tied the game at one in the first inning, but they didn’t score again until the ninth in the loss. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Contreras and Durbin, who both had one RBI. Crochet allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Anderson allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Boston lost two out of three against the Twins, but did win two out of three against the Cardinals before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 81 runs with a .228 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Wilson Contreras has led the Red Sox with four home runs and 12 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added two home runs and 17 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sonny Gray, who is 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 20.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Tigers have lost nine of their last 10 games at Fenway Park following a win.
• The home team has won 17 of the Tigers’ last 20 games.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five Monday road games.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in six of their last eight games as favorites against the Tigers following a home loss.

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won eight of their last nine Monday games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games at Fenway Park against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the last six games between the Tigers and Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Tigers’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six day games at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Willson Contreras has recorded a hit in each of his last six appearances against the Tigers after playing the previous day.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Kerry Carpenter has hit at least one home run in three of his seven previous road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for strikeouts this season (163).
• The Red Sox rank 25th in the league for runs scored this season (81).
• The Tigers rank T3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (155).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (75).

Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup really struggling to score runs this season and they have scored two or fewer in four of their last five games. The Red Sox are 4-5 at home this year, while the Tigers are 4-9 on the road. Detroit has won eight of their last nine games and they have one of the best team ERA’s in the MLB. The Tigers are starting Flaherty, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts, while the Red Sox are starting Gray, who has allowed 5, 0, 2, and 3 earned runs in his four outings. I know Flaherty has been the slightly better pitcher this season, but I don’t trust him at all and the Tigers offense has been much worse on the road. Take Boston to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML