Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction 9/15/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rangers vs Astros Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 15th at the Daikin Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have an 81-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Astros have a 43-32 home record and 68-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-8 road defeat by the Braves, that ended their two-game winning streak. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Athletics and the Mariners next.

The Astros have a .252 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 146 hits, adding a team-high 25 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 81. 

Jason Alexander (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 4-1 record, 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 79-71 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 32-43 road record and are 66-81 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 road victory over the Mets, and are 7-1 in their last 8 games. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Twins and the Marlins next.

The Rangers have a .237 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .387 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.42 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 121 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .257 batting average. Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Corey Seager adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Jack Leiter (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers, and he has a 9-8 record, 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: September 15, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jason Alexander      Record this season: 4-1      ERA: 4.18
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Rangers: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won 13 of their last 14 games against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last four night games at Daikin Park after going to extra innings.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a loss.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after going to extra innings.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jack Leiter      Record this season: 9-8      ERA: 3.81
• Road Record: 3-6
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-0

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Rangers’ last eight games.
• The Astros have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Rangers and Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rangers’ last four road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 home games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rangers’ last eight road games against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jake Meyers has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Astros as home favorites against the Rangers.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ramon Urias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against AL West opponents.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.297) this season.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Josh Jung has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Corey Seager has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rangers as underdogs.
• Corey Seager has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1404).
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.231).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.42).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (549).

Rangers vs Astros Prediction

The Rangers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Astros, and are 2-1 their last 3 meetings in Houston. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.  

In this Rangers vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -125 home favorites. Leiter has been weaker on the road for the Rangers, with a 4.45 ERA, and he has 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Astros this season. On the flip side, Alexander is coming into this matchup in excellent form for the Astros, and the Astros are 8-0 in his last 8 starts. The Astros have fallen in the second place of the AL West and are finally back after a brutal stretch of three straight road series. They need every win they can get in the final two weeks of the season, so I expect them to put up a good effort at home and get away with the win.