Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 4/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Apr 3, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis (23) reacts after grounding into fielders choice during the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Team Records
3-5
3-5
Where
Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
When
Saturday, April 4, 2026
Time
07:10 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins meet Saturday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Steven Matz for the start here and Matz is 1-0 with a 7.20 ERA and 2 strikeouts this season. In his career, Matz is 1-0 with a 7.20 ERA and 13 strikeouts against the Twins. The Minnesota Twins will send out Mick Abel here and Abel is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season. This will be Abel’s first career start against the Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays Recap
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to shake off a 10-4 loss at the hands of the Twins in Friday’s opener to sit at 2-5 this season. After this series will head home for a series against the Cubs.
Rays Lose 3 In A Row
Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 13 hits with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 10 hits with a triple. Nick Fortes has 8 hits with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 7 hits with a double, 2 homers and 5 RBIs.
Minnesota Twins Recap
The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to add onto their win over the Rays on Friday to sit at 3-4 this season. After this series, the Twins will take on the Tigers in a division series at home.
Twins Win Back-To-Back Games
Luke Keaschall has 7 hits with 3 RBIs while Josh Bell has 6 hits with 3 doubles and 2 home runs with 7 RBIs. Royce Lewis has 4 hits wtih 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 4 hits with 2 solo home runs. Victor Caratini also has 5 hits this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: April 4, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Mick Abel Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 13.50
Home Record: 0-0
Last 5 against Rays: –
Why the Minnesota Twins will win
The Twins have won each of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Rays have lost eight of their last nine road games against American League opponents.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
The Twins have covered the run line each of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz Record this season: 1-0 ERA: 7.20
Road Record: 1-0
Last 5 against Twins: 1-0
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
The Twins have lost each of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
The Rays have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Twins following a loss.
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last nine games at Target Field.
The Twins have lost the first inning in six of their last seven home games.
The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Rays’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Twins’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Rays’ last 13 night games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Twins’ last eight games.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
Josh Bell has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games.
Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games as underdogs.
Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
Yandy Diaz ranks 1st in the league in Hits (13) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Twins rank 4th in the league for walks this season (34).
The Twins rank T4th in the league for home runs allowed this season (5).
The Rays rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.92).
The Rays rank 29th in the league for runs allowed this season (48).
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
I’m on the over in this one. I get the case to be made for either side, but I don’t trust either starter here and the bullpens on both sides have been horrendous this season. I think this is going to be a high-scoring game that’s not as one-sided as Friday’s game. Give me the over.
