Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 10/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, October 23rd in Game 1 of the World Series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers finished the regular season with a 103-59 record and were placed 1st in the NL Central. They have a 55-26 home record and are coming off a 6-4 road win against the Dodgers, winning the series 4-0.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .250 batting average this postseason, .343 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 2.03 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .367 batting average, adding a team-high 3 home runs. Jackson Chourio leads the team in RBI with 7.

Jacob Misiorowski (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 0-0 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays finished the regular season with a 98-64 record and were placed 1st in the AL East.  They have a 43-38 road record and are coming off a 7-3 home win against the Guardians, winning the series 4-2.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .232 batting average this postseason, .293 OBP and .356 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average, adding a team-high 2 home runs. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 5.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 1-0 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: October 23, 2026

 

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 16-5      ERA: 1.87
• Home Record: 8-1
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last 12 games at American Family Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have lost each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games following a road win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have won the first inning in eight of their last nine home games against AL opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 16-6      ERA: 3.10
• Road Record: 8-3
• Last 5 against Brewers: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last eight night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line each of their last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have lost the first inning in five of their last six home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers’ last nine night playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last nine home games against AL opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Rays’ last six night games against NL opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four playoff games as home favorites.
• Jacob Misiorowski has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 appearances against AL opponents.
• William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL East opponents.
• Jacob Misiorowski ranks 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (252) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Brewers after not playing the previous day.
• Nick Martinez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (46) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1422).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.258).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).

Rays vs Brewers Prediction

The Brewers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Rays and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

In this Rays vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -180 home favorites. The Brewers have been almost perfect in the postseason, having lost only once and are coming off a series sweep against the Dodgers, so they have all the momentum in the world and also have Jacob Misiorowski on the mound, who sits on an 8-1 record and 1.64 ERA at home. On the flip side, the Rays have a much easier opponent in the ALCS with the Guardians and have weaker numbers all across the board in the playoffs. They will be facing a Brewers team on the road that had four extra days of rest, so things are not looking good. Take the Brewers to win the first game at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML