| MATCHUP | Tampa Bay Rays | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 36-23 | 29-34 |
| Spread | -1.5 123 | +1.5 -149 |
| Moneyline | -137 | +114 |
| Total | Over 8 (-101) | Under 8 (-119) |
| Where | loanDepot park, Miami, Florida | |
| When | Friday, June 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, June 5th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 29-34 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 18-15 home record and are coming off a 4-1 road win against the Nationals. They will face the Diamondbacks and the Pirates next.
The Marlins have a .244 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .332 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 46, adding a team-high 12 home runs.
Ryan Gusto (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 0-0 record, 9.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 36-23 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 15-14 road record and are coming off a 2-7 home defeat against the Tigers. They will face the Red Sox and the Angels next.
The Rays have a .256 batting average this season, .334 OBP and .386 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .313 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 43, while Junior Caminero adds a team-high 14 home runs.
Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 4-2 record, 3.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: June 5, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto Record this season: 0-0 ERA: 9.00
- Home Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Rays: 0-0
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
- The underdogs have won each of the Rays’ last three games.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as road favorites.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games.
- The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Record this season: 4-2 ERA: 3.36
- Road Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Marlins: 3-0
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won each of their last 10 games against the Marlins following a loss.
- The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Rays following a win.
- The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against NL East opponents.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last eight games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 14 of the Marlins’ last 16 games as home underdogs.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (82) this season.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games against the Marlins.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
- Yandy Diaz ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.313) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (71).
- The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (13).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (427).
- The Rays rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (449).
Rays vs Marlins Prediction
The Rays are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Marlins but have lost two of their last three visits in Miami.
In this Rays vs Marlins Prediction, the Rays are coming as -140 road favorites. The Rays got swept at home by the Tigers and had 25 earned runs in three games. They are facing a Marlins teams coming off a sweep on the road and Rasmussen is not playing good enough to trust the Rays. The Marlins might be going for a bullpen game with Ryan Gusto and their bullpen has been far better than the Rays, so I like them as home dogs in this one. Take the Marlins for plus money.