| MATCHUP | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 52-33 | 43-47 |
| Spread | -1.5 154 | +1.5 -188 |
| Moneyline | -110 | -110 |
| Total | Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (-101) |
| Where | Daikin Park, Houston, Texas | |
| When | Saturday, July 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 4th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 43‑47 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 21‑24 home record and are coming off a 1‑3 home defeat against the Rays. They will face the Nationals and the Rangers next.
The Astros have a .241 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .407 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .319 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 61 and adding a team‑high 27 home runs.
Hunter Brown (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1‑0 record, 1.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 52‑33 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 21‑21 road record and are coming off a 3‑1 road win against the Astros. They will face the Yankees and the Mariners next.
The Rays have a .260 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .398 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .325 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 58, while Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 25 home runs.
Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 7‑4 record, 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Hunter Brown Record this season: 1-0 ERA: 1.78
- Home Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Rays: 3-1
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Astros have won six of their last seven games following a home loss.
- The Rays have lost six of their last seven night games at Daikin Park following a road win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Record this season: 7-4 ERA: 2.45
- Road Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Astros: 2-2
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won each of their last nine games.
- The Astros have lost four of their last five games as home favorites.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 10 games between the Rays and Astros.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites following a loss.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Rays’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Astros’ last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Astros’ last six Saturday games at Daikin Park.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Hunter Brown has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.
- Hunter Brown has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against AL East opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.625) this season.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
- Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Astros.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five road appearances.
- Yandy Diaz ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (101) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank T29th in the league for steals this season (28).
- The Astros rank T28th in the league for triples this season (6).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (603).
- The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (232).
Rays vs Astros Prediction
The Rays are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Astros and have won three of their last five visits in Houston.
In this Rays vs Astros Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. Both pitchers have been excellent with a combined 4.23 ERA and their home/away splits have been even better. Houston ranks just 26th against right-handed pitching in the last 10 days and the opening game of the series had just 4 total runs. I expect another low-scoring grind in this pitchers duel, so take the under 7.5 in this one.