Cincinnati Reds (16-14) vs St. Louis Cardinals (13-17)
Game Info: Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 12:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -122 / St. Louis Cardinals +102 — Over/Under: 8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds meet Thursday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the finale in a four-game series. Here’s a Cardinals vs Reds prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cardinals vs Reds pick. We will examine:
The St. Louis Cardinals’ recent form and player performance
The Cincinnati Reds’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the St. Louis Cardinals
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds
Recent betting trends in games played between the Cardinals and Reds
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cardinals vs Reds game
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
St. Louis bagged a sweep over the Minnesota Twins in their first set of the year, then lost a series against the Los Angeles Angels before a sweep by the Boston Red Sox. The Cards lost their next series against the Pittsburgh Pirates before a set victory versus Philadelphia. The Cardinals then took a series victory against the Houston Astros, ahead of a sweep by the Mets, then a set loss versus the Braves. St. Louis took wins in their first two weekend games versus the Brewers, then lost the finale. In the Monday matchup with the Reds, the Cardinals took a 3-1 loss. On Tuesday, St. Louis got rained out. That matchup was pushed back to a Wednesday doubleheader.
In the Wednesday opener, the Cardinals cruised to a 6-0 shutout win. In the nightcap, St. Louis kept it going, scoring five runs in the third inning alone during a 9-1 win. Wilson Contreras had three RBI, two runs, two hits, and a homer. Starting pitcher Steven Matz came away with 4.0 frames, five hits, no earned runs, no walks, and six strikeouts.
Starter for the Thursday finale will be St. Louis’ Matthew Liberatore. So far this year, Liberatore is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five starts over 31.0 innings. Liberatore is 10-14 with a 4.73 ERA in 96 games (29 starts) over his career.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Over on the Reds’ side, they opened up the year with losses in three straight sets against the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati finally won a series during the rematch with the Giants, ahead of a sweep over the Pirates. Following a set loss against the Mariners, the Reds took out the Orioles in a series prior to a set loss versus the Marlins in two of three. Cincinnati beat the Rockies in a sweep over the weekend, then on Monday, the Reds kept it going by out-hitting the Cards 8-5.
On Wednesday in game one, the Reds were out-hit 7-3 in the shutout. In game two, Cincinnati didn’t fare much better, scoring one run on seven team hits.
Andrew Abbott will take the mound for the Reds’ Thursday start. This year, Abbott is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts. Over his career, Abbott is 20-16 with a 3.77 ERA in 49 total starts at the MLB level.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Reds have won each of their last four day games after playing the previous day.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five day games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites after playing the previous day.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Reds have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against the Cardinals following a home loss.
- The underdogs have won six of the last eight games between the Cardinals and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a home loss.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in five of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the Reds’ last 10 day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Cardinals’ last 10 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games at Great American Ball Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five games as underdogs.
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Cardinals here. This should be a good starter matchup if both guys are on point, though. Liberatore is 2-1 in his last three outings, posting 18.2 total innings (at least 6.0 in each) with three earned runs on 14 hits and two walks combined. As for Abbott, he didn’t post the greatest outing in a no-decision versus Colorado on April 25, giving up four earned runs on five walks and five hits in 4.0 innings. In his two prior starts, however, Abbott went 2-0 with 11.0 innings, two earned, four hits, and three walks combined.
St. Louis was quite dominant in both games of the Wednesday doubleheader, pummeling the Reds’ offense into submission. This finale is likely going to come down to bullpens and late heroics at the plate, though, and I like the Cards to come through in the end.